Betting the Remington Springboard Mile Stakes

If you’re scratching your head, wondering which horses to bet in Saturday’s $200,000 Remington Springboard Mile S. at Remington Park, I can’t say I blame you. The race is thoroughly confusing, once you dig in to handicap.

At first glance, it seems like #8 Cowan (4-1) and #9 Outadore (3-1) should be standouts. They’re certainly the most accomplished runners in the 1-mile Road to the Kentucky Derby prep race, and surely one or the other will claim the 10 qualification points at stake for the winner, right?

But Cowan and Outadore have done their best running on turf. Cowan unleashed a powerful rally to finish second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (G2), where he was beaten less than a length. Outadore showed impressive early speed and battled to a third-place effort in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1).

The fact Cowan and Outadore have both placed in Breeders’ Cup events is appealing, especially when you consider none of their Springboard Mile rivals have contested a graded stakes event.

But the switch from turf to dirt isn’t the only obstacle facing the favorites. There is also the distance question.

Cowan has never run farther than 7 furlongs, and his best efforts have come sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs or shorter. Outadore handled a mile reasonably well in the Juvenile Turf, but he was definitely weakening at the finish, and his 2-for-2 record sprinting hints shorter distances might be his forte.

With these factors in mind, I’m tempted to think outside the box and favor a pair of longshots.

#1 Senor Buscador (15-1) showed promise in his debut dashing 5 1/2 furlongs at Remington Park, where he unleashed a rally from last place to win by 2 1/2 lengths. Trainer Todd Fincher strikes at a 22% rate with horses running long for the first time, so the stretch out in distance shouldn’t be an issue for Senor Buscador. If a fast pace unfolds, he can capitalize at a fair price.

#7 Saffa’s Day (12-1) is also appealing. Trained by Steve Asmussen, who has won the Springboard Mile seven times, Saffa’s Day wired his debut at Keeneland by 5 1/4 lengths, them finished sixth in a tough renewal of the 6 1/2-furlong Nyquist S. The son of Carpe Diem is bred to stretch out and will add Lasix for his two-turn debut, which sets the stage for an improved performance.

Let’s play Saffa’s Day and Senor Buscador on top in the exacta. Underneath, we’ll add Cowan, Outadore, and #10 Joe Frazier (5-1), who finished third in a 1 1/16-mile allowance at Churchill Downs last month. Assuming one of our longshots reaches the winner’s circle, we’ll be poised to enjoy a big payday.

$3 exacta: 1,7 with 1,7,8,9,10 ($24)

Good luck!