Pacquiao vs. Ugas betting odds, preview, and pick

Manny Pacquiao (gray trunks) and Juan Marquez (black trunks) battled through six rounds of intense boxing before a decisive knock-out by Marquez ended the highly anticipated rematch. (Photo by Zumapress/Icon Sportswire)

Danny Howard

August 16th, 2021

It may not be the fight of the summer, but Manny Pacquiao’s return is still an event that can’t be missed. The living legend faces off against late substitute Yordenis Ugas on Saturday, Aug. 21, and we have the betting odds and pick you need ahead of fight night.

Sun, August 22 2021, 2:00 AM

Pacquiao, Manny

Moneyline

-315

Ugas, Yordenis

Moneyline

+255

Pacquiao moves from underdog to favorite

Many feared the worse for Pacquiao as the Errol Spence fight neared, but his fortunes have changed with Ugas stepping in. It’s been two years since Pacquiao’s last fight, a sensational victory over Keith Thurman, and the 42-year-old is now facing an entirely different opponent than the one he had been preparing for.

Pacquiao is long past his prime, but his bursts of offense and top tier footwork make him dangerous. Against Ugas, he has an opponent who will opt to fight a more conventional fight and use his skill instead of his size.

Manny Pacquiao vs. Yordenis Ugas tale of the tape

Manny Pacquiao	vs.	Yordenis Ugas

62-7-2 (39 KO)	Record	26-4 (12 KO)
42	Age	35
5'6"	Height	5'9"
67"	Reach	69"
4-1 (1 KO)	Last 5 Fights	4-1 (1 KO)
Active offense	Key Intangibles	Awkward style

Ugas is tricky

The Cuban holds slight advantages in youth, size, and reach in the biggest fight of his career. Ugas has been active lately, and most recently used a strong jab to earn a split decision win over Abel Ramos that should have been unanimous in his favor.

At his best, Ugas is an awkward fighter who sets traps and fights slow to bring down the pace. Like most Cuban fighters, Ugas is well schooled and defensively sound, but he also exhibits some of the more common flaws found in fighters of a similar mold.

Pacquiao’s fast start will be enough for a win

In Ugas’ biggest fight to date, he coughed up a chance to upset Shawn Porter when he fought too passively down the stretch, allowing Porter to steal a win. Pacquiao might not be as active as Porter, but he’s fast enough to make it seem he’s outworking the tentative Ugas.

Unless Pacquiao is rusty or thrown off his rhythm by Ugas, he is going to come roaring out the gate like he did with Thurman. There is a real chance that Ugas might be boxing his way to a decision win, but he’ll need to turn it up a notch to seal the deal, and that is something Ugas hasn’t shown he is capable of doing.

In a tense, tactical fight, Pacquiao will outwork Ugas to earn a decision win.

Boxing free pick: Pacquiao

Boxing