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Chelsea vs. Liverpool: EFL Cup final betting odds, preview, and pick

Profile Picture: Jason Ence

Jason Ence

February 25th, 2022

Two of the three winningest clubs in the history of the EFL Cup will meet on Sunday at Wembley Stadium, when Liverpool and Chelsea square off in the Carabao Cup Final.

EFL Cup odds

ChelseaDrawLiverpool
+235
+225
+130

Chelsea seek sixth trophy under Tuchel

With their title hopes long gone in the Premier League, Chelsea are aiming to rack up silverware in all other competitions. Coming off their recent Club World Cup victory, Thomas Tuchel has a chance to pick up his sixth piece of hardware in just 13 months in charge with a win on Sunday.

The Blues took a decisive edge in their two-legged Champions League tie with Lille on Tuesday, defeating the reigning Ligue 1 champions 2-0 on the back of goals from Kai Havertz and Christian Pulisic. It was their ninth win out of 11 matches in all competitions, with a 1-1 draw at Brighton and a 1-0 defeat at Manchester City being the only blemishes on that record.

The win against Lille came at a cost, though. Midfielder Mateo Kovacic came off with a muscle injury, and later in-form winger Hakim Ziyech went down with a non-contact ankle injury and also came off. Neither are expected to be available for the match, although Mason Mount should make the bench after being an unused substitute on Tuesday.

Also making the lineup will certainly be striker Romelu Lukaku. The expensive signing has been struggling of late, no more so than during his atrocious performance against Crystal Palace on Saturday, in which he touched the ball just seven times despite playing more than 90 minutes. He should be flanked by Havertz and Pulisic, which might see him provided with more service.

Chelsea have kept four clean sheets in their last six matches, due in large part to the return of Thiago Silva in defense and N’Golo Kante in the midfield. Both will be key in slowing down a Liverpool attack that can hit them from all directions.

Liverpool aim for record ninth League Cup

Sunday will see Liverpool participate in the League Cup for the 13th time, four more than any other club. Only they and Manchester City have won it more than Chelsea, but Liverpool are tied with the Citizens for the most victories, after the Manchester club won each of the past four years.

The Reds are coming off a dominant 6-0 win at the midweek against Leeds, putting them squarely in the title race with City. Mohamed Salah scored two goals and assisted another, while Sadio Mane found the back of the net for the third time in two matches. Their output was impressive, given they were without both Roberto Firmino and Diogo Jota at striker.

While Firmino will almost certainly miss the match, Jota returned to training on Wednesday and has a shot at making the bench. Luis Diaz, a signing in the January transfer window, will likely start on the left with Mane playing centrally. This will suit the Senegalese forward just fine, as his eight goals against Chelsea are the second most in his career versus one club.

At the back, keeper Caoimhin Kelleher is expected to start between the posts in place of Alisson, as he has during the entire cup run. With the partnership of Virgil Van Dijk and Joel Matip in defense, it might not matter who starts in goal. Liverpool have conceded just one goal in their last five matches across all competitions, and have kept a clean sheet in seven of their last 10 outings.

Match Trends and Free Bet

Chelsea have defeated Liverpool in their last three meetings across all domestic cup competitions.

Chelsea have scored in five of the last six meetings between the clubs, while Liverpool have scored in four of those six. Both teams have found the back of the net in three of their last five meetings.

Three of the last four meetings between these teams in all competitions have seen two or fewer goals scored. The one outlier was their previous meeting on Jan 2 in the Premier League, which ended in a 2-2 draw.

Twice before have Liverpool and Chelsea squared off in a cup final, with the London outfit lifting the cup both times. However, there are real issues for Chelsea in attack. In their last six matches against top flight opposition, being either Premier League or Champions League sides, Ziyech has either scored or assisted in four of their seven total goals. Additionally, aside from his two goals in the Club World Cup versus lesser opposition, Lukaku has not scored in his last seven appearances.

Liverpool are in outstanding form right now at both ends of the pitch, and Salah is arguably the best forward in the world at the moment. Their attack will flow through him, and I expect him to expose the defensive frailties of wingback Marcos Alonso early and often.

Chelsea will put up a good fight, but Liverpool is simply the better side. Take the Reds to win in regulation, and pair it with a Mane goal to take home a profitable Same Game Combo play.

Score prediction: Liverpool 2-1 Chelsea

Free pick: Liverpool ML (+125)

Same Game Combo: Liverpool win / Sadio Mane goal anytime (+450)

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