Michigan State vs. Iowa: NCAA betting odds, preview, and pick

Two Big Ten opponents face off Tuesday evening when the slumping Michigan State Spartans head to Iowa City to take on the Iowa Hawkeyes.

The Spartans were atop the conference earlier this season, but have fallen to 18-8 overall, and have now lost four of their last five games. The Hawkeyes, meanwhile, are also 18-8 overall, and have climbed to 25th in the nation after winning four of their last five outings.

Let’s break down the game, beginning with the latest betting odds available.

Hawkeyes are flying high thanks to Murray

Prior to 2022, the Iowa Hawkeyes had one of the nation’s greatest offenses thanks to their veteran big man, Luka Garza. He led the country his senior year and facilitated much of the offense, leaving many to wonder if the Hawkeyes would experience a major drop-off following his graduation.

It turns out that the Hawkeyes are just as capable in 2022, with athletic forward Keegan Murray stepping up in a major way to keep the Hawkeyes in the top 5 nationally in offensive efficiency.

Murray is 6’8" and 225 lbs, and while he was just a three-star recruit out of high school, he is leading the team with 23.4 points per game, good enough for first in the Big Twn and fourth in the country. Murray also averages 8.2 rebounds and is quickly becoming one of the most exciting players on any given night with his athleticism.

Murray gets help with excellent 3-point shooting from his teammates, as Iowa’s next three leading scorers all shoot better than 31% from deep.

Iowa is fifth in the country in offensive efficiency rankings, and the Hawkeyes are even more dangerous at home, where they average 10.9 more points per game. Only top-ranked Gonzaga scores more points on its home court.

Against a Spartans team that only has one player averaging double-digits on the season, Iowa may find itself with significantly better luck getting the ball in the hoop.

Michigan State vs. Iowa Betting Trends

• Michigan State is 1-5 against the spread in its last six games
• The Under is 5-2 in Michigan State’s last seven games against a team with a winning record
• The road team is 4-0 against the spread in the last four games between these teams
• Iowa is 5-2 against the spread in its last seven Tuesday games
• The Over is 7-1 in Iowa’s last eight home games against a team with a winning record

Will Momentum Matter?

The Spartans are in a real rut, as they’ve averaged just 66 points per game over their last five contests. Veteran Gabe Brown is their leading scorer with 11.8 points per game, but this is a team that was overly reliant on Aaron Henry in 2021 and has yet to find a replacement in 2022.

These teams are going in opposite directions, and the Hawkeyes should take care of business tonight with their significantly greater offensive efficiency.

Score prediction: Iowa 78, Michigan State 67

NCAAB pick: Iowa -6.5

Michigan State vs. Iowa pick powered by The Quant Edge

Our predictive engine is calling for Iowa to win and cover the spread.