Memphis vs. Hawai'i: Hawai'i Bowl betting odds, preview, and pick

For college football fans and bettors everywhere, there is one tradition during the holidays that is unmistakably familiar and appreciated. I’m talking about the Hawai'i Bowl.

Played on Christmas Eve, it creates annual conversations among family members regarding their desire to take a tropical island vacation together. It also gives us something to bet on when the rest of the betting marketplace is quiet.

This year’s matchup features Memphis and the game’s traditional entrant, Hawai'i. Today let’s take a closer look at this seasonal treat and see if we can’t deliver an early gift with a winning pick.

Hawai'i Transfers 

Early bettors on Memphis in this matchup are going to benefit from a tremendous amount of closing-line value, as the line has drifted upward four points.

The reason Memphis has become a significantly larger favorite is a series of departures from the Hawai'i offense. Hawai'i’s starting quarterback this year was Chevan Cordeiro, who threw for 2,793 yards on the season. He also added 342 yards on the ground and totaled 20 touchdowns. He has entered the transfer portal and elected to end his time in Hawai'i.

His teammate in the backfield was running back Dae Dae Hunter, who led the team with 651 rushing yards and an impressive 6.4 yards per carry. Hunter has also elected to transfer, leaving the Rainbow Warriors with essentially backups at their two primary offensive skill positions.

In Cordeiro’s stead will be Brayden Schager, who had just two touchdowns against five interceptions in his limited opportunities this year. Schager is also not the running threat that Cordeiro was, which makes this look like a clear downgrade at the most important position for the underdog.

The Hawai'i offense was just 73rd in the nation in yards per play in 2021 and will likely struggle to match its average output in this one.

Memphis and Hawai'i Betting Trends

• Hawai'i is 1-4 ATS in its last five non-conference games
• The Under is 4-1 in the Tigers’ last five non-conference games
• The Under is 11-5 in the Tigers’ last 16 games
• Memphis is 17-3 straight up in its last 20 games as a favorite
• Memphis is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games on the road

Trouble In Paradise

Hawai'i head football coach Todd Graham hasn’t had the most impressive career trajectory. After a couple of stints in the Power Five, he landed at Hawai'i, where things appear to be trending downward.

He has obviously lost two key players, and multiple other players have reported negative experiences that have them questioning football and this program. Graham has always been a hard-nosed coach, and the game of football is full of toughness and profane language, but there’s plenty of evidence to question if Graham has lost this year’s team.

Memphis sits at .500, and while it hasn’t been profitable against the spread, the opportunity to finish the year with a winning record should be motivation enough to come out with conviction. Look for Memphis to show much greater efficiency offensively and outpace the home team to win and cover.

Score prediction: Memphis 34, Hawaii 20

Hawai'i Bowl pick: Memphis -9

Hawai'i pick powered by The Quant Edge

Our predictive engine is calling for Memphis to win outright and Hawai'i to cover the spread.