NCAAF Week 11: East Carolina vs. Cincinnati odds, preview and pick

The No. 7 Cincinnati Bearcats will look to pad their 6-0 record when they host the East Carolina Pirates (1-5) at Nippert Stadium on Friday evening (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2). Favorite bettors will have to spot a burdensome number, but are the Bearcats capable of pulling off the cover? We break down this primetime affair below.

East Carolina looks outclassed based on recent results

The Pirates have dropped three straight heading into this one, their most recent result being a double-digit loss to perennial AAC doormat Tulane.

Cincinnati has won by no fewer than 21 points in each of their last four games.

Pirates defense should expect steady dose of Doaks

East Carolina’s defense is a dismal 109th in the country in rushing yards allowed per game this season (217.2). Bettors should expect the Bearcats to exploit this weakness by giving senior running back Gerrid Doaks the ball early and often.

Doaks is fresh off a season-high 184 rushing yards against Houston in a 38-10 stomping last Saturday. He’s averaging 5.3 yards per carry on 96 attempts in 2020 with seven touchdowns.

Bearcats have edge in quarterback battle

The Pirates will have to rely more on their quarterback – junior Holton Ahlers – in this one. But that doesn’t mean Cincinnati quarterback – junior Desmond Ridder – isn’t the more reliable signal caller on the field.

Ahlers rates below Ridder in completion percentage (63.5 versus 64.5) and yards per attempt (6.8 versus 7.6). He’s also been sacked 12 times in 2020 compared to Ridder’s mark of five.

Ridder is far more versatile than Ahlers too – he’s the Bearcats’ second-leading rusher at 394 yards (45 carries). Ahlers has just 56 yards on 34 carries this year.

Cincinnati’s stoppers have been stingy

The Pirates could find it very difficult to move the chains against the Bearcats’ fearsome defense. Cincinnati is 12th in the nation in points allowed per game (11.7) and yards allowed per play (4.3).

The Bearcats haven’t allowed more than 93 yards on the ground in four straight contests. That spells trouble for Pirates freshman tailback Rahjai Harris, who was held to 27 yards on 13 carries last Saturday.

Trends say lay the points

East Carolina is 16-36-1 against the spread in its last 53 conference games, and has covered in just 15 of its last 51 games against teams with winning records.

Cincinnati is 9-4 against the spread in its last 13 home games, and has covered in five of its last six conference tilts.

Predicted score: Bearcats 45, Pirates 14

NCAAF pick: Bearcats -27.5

Wager on all Week 11 college football action now at BetAmerica.