Oklahoma is favored to win Big 12, but is it the best bet?

During the three-year tenure of head coach Lincoln Riley, Oklahoma has won three Big 12 titles and earned a College Football Playoff berth in each season.

Each year, Riley does it the same way — with an explosive offense, led by a new starting quarterback.

In 2020, the pattern will continue. Spencer Rattler will succeed Jalen Hurts, who succeeded Kyler Murray, who succeeded Baker Mayfield.

Despite the revolving door at quarterback, Oklahoma is favored once again to claim the Big 12 championship.

While the Sooners are seemingly a safe bet to command the conference, other schools have begun to play catch-up.

Oklahoma’s defense still a liability

As the CFP semifinal demonstrated, Oklahoma’s defense is a major weakness. To be fair, the unit faced LSU’s earth-shattering offense, which led the FBS in average yards per game (568.4). But the Sooners got embarrassed, nonetheless, in the 63-28 romp.

Last year, Oklahoma hired former Ohio State coordinator Alex Grinch to rebuild the defense. The unit ranked third in the Big 12 in points allowed per game (24.5), a huge step forward from the 32.4 they surrendered in 2018.

But the Sooners need more improvement on that side of the ball. In Oklahoma’s lone regular-season loss in 2019, the team coughed up 48 points to Kansas State. The Sooners also nearly fell to Iowa State in a 42-41 decision, and narrowly beat Baylor, 34-31, and TCU, 28-24.

The Bears almost beat Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship Game, as well, but ultimately lost steam in a 30-23 overtime loss.

Oklahoma got lucky in a few close games, but it can’t expect the same in 2020 if the defense doesn’t get better. Luckily, the Sooners bring back plenty of experience and talent, though they’ll miss lineman Ronnie Perkins the first five games, after the NCAA suspended him. The case is currently under appeal.

Texas in position to win Red River Showdown

The fifth game on Oklahoma’s schedule is against Texas. Last year, the Sooners bested the 8-5 Longhorns, 34-27. This season, Texas is poised to pay back its archrival.

Senior quarterback Sam Ehlinger (3,663 passing yards, 663 rushing yards, 39 total touchdowns last season) is back for another year, as are 15 other starters between the offense and defense.

Head coach Tom Herman — who is under some pressure with a 25-15 record through three seasons in Texas — hired seven new coaches in the offseason. Former Rutgers coach Chris Ash will assume defensive coordinator duties, and former Ohio State quarterbacks coach Mike Yurcich will call the offense.

With the Big 12’s top recruiting class in 2020 (No. 8 in the nation), Texas could win the conference championship for the first time since 2009.

Oklahoma State a longshot play

There’s another Oklahoma rival that may be more dangerous to the Sooners’ 2020 campaign.

Though Oklahoma State hasn’t beaten Oklahoma since 2014, the Cowboys have the star power and experience to get over the hump in the Bedlam Series.

Running back Chuba Hubbard, who topped the FBS in rushing (2,094) in 2019, chose to forgo the 2020 NFL Draft. He’ll be joined by quarterback Spencer Sanders, who started last season as a freshman, and Tylan Wallace, who ranked fourth in receiving yards (903) in the Big 12, even though he only played eight games.

On defense, 12 of the top 13 tacklers return for Oklahoma State, as well as most of the top pass rushers.

The Sooners host Oklahoma State in late October, after Oklahoma faces a tough stretch against Texas and at Iowa State.

The timing couldn’t be more perfect for the Cowboys to seize a victory in Norman and become the new school from Oklahoma to reign atop the Big 12.  

---

Bet the 2020 college football season at BetAmerica.