Scully’s Week 10 NCAAF picks: Florida, Georgia clash in SEC play

The Pac-12 returns to the gridiron in Week 10, and a marquee SEC matchup is on tap between Florida and Georgia.

After I started the season with a dreadful 2-6 record against the spread, I have turned things around, with five consecutive winning weeks, to improve to 12-10 ATS.

Let’s make it six straight in Week 10.

#8 Florida vs. #5 Georgia

Florida has the better quarterback. Kyle Trask has tossed 18 touchdowns and only two interceptions in four games, and Georgia is banged up defensively, after a physical win over Kentucky.

Georgia had four defensive starters go down in Week 9, with lineman Julian Rochester out and nose tackle Jordan Davis doubtful with a fractured elbow. All-American safety Richard LeCounte (13 tackles against Kentucky) was injured in a car accident afterward, and the Bulldogs will miss him against Florida’s All-American tight end Kyle Pitts.

Florida got it rolling after a sluggish start in Week 9, outgained Missouri 514-248 in total yards, and the Gators' prolific offense will force Georgia to keep up.

Georgia quarterback Stetson Bennett wasn’t sharp in Week 9, when he tossed a pair of interceptions against Kentucky, and the Bulldogs are eligible to change quarterbacks after they fall behind in Week 10.

Georgia’s defense played 35 minutes in Week 9 and defended 39 rushing attempts against Kentucky’s bruising offensive line, so Florida will catch the Bulldogs at the right time.

Pick: Florida +3

Houston vs. #6 Cincinnati

Cincinnati’s offense has found its flow, with 92 combined points over the last two games, and the Bearcats are one of the top 10 defensive teams in college football. They will carry their momentum forward against Houston.

The return of top receiver Alec Pierce provided a boost to Cincinnati, which humiliated Memphis, 49-10, after it surrendered an early 92-yard, screen-pass touchdown in Week 9. Memphis quarterback Brady White (18 for 35 passing) did not have open receivers, and AAC teams can’t run on this defense (Cincy has held every conference opponent fewer than 100 yards rushing).

Cincinnati quarterback Desmond Ridder, who completed 21 of his 25 passes, with three touchdowns, in Week 9, has developed into a bona fide NFL prospect. Pierce, who logged 61 receiving yards and a touchdown in his first game back, provides an elite downfield threat. Cincinnati has averaged 274 rushing yards against top conference rivals over the last two games (SMU and Memphis).

Houston exits an ugly 44-21 loss to Central Florida, and the Cougars will prove no match for sixth-ranked Cincinnati.

Pick: Cincinnati -13.5

Louisville vs. Virginia

Louisville’s offense has been up and down, but the defense is consistently bad. Virginia will take advantage in Week 10.

The Cavaliers enter on the upswing. They defeated favored North Carolina by a 44-41 margin in Week 9. Virginia opened with a tough schedule and lost four of its first five games, but the Cavs were starting to make headway before an explosion against UNC, where they exceeded 40 points for the first time this season.

Virginia will score early and often against declining Louisville.

Louisville still has offensive weapons, but the team’s psyche has been shaken. The Cardinals had nine players declared out because of COVID-19 concerns in Week 9, which left them with just five defensive linemen, and the offensive line is in shambles. They won’t be able to match points with Virginia.

Pick: Virginia -3

James Scully's NCAAF ATS record heading into Week 10: 12-10