Scully's Week 3 NCAAF picks: Louisville, Georgia Tech on the upswing

I’ll turn my focus to ACC teams in Week 3, which includes an expected high-scoring matchup between a pair of programs hoping for a breakout season.

Miami at Louisville

Louisville has a big edge at quarterback. Micale Cunningham overcame a slow start to light up an experienced Western Kentucky defense in last week’s opener. He threw for 343 yards and accounted for four touchdowns, and the Cardinals play fast with quality receivers Dez Fitzpatrick, Tutu Atwell, and Braden Smith.

Miami will have to match points against an improving defense. Louisville didn’t face the toughest test in its the opener, but it held Western Kentucky to three first downs in the first half and 248 total yards for the game. I like how the Cardinals are progressing in head coach Scott Satterfield’s second year.

The passing game did not look like a strength for Miami last week. Graduate transfer D’Eriq King threw for only 158 yards, as the Hurricanes relied heavily upon the ground game (337 rushing yards) in a new spread offense.

I don’t doubt Miami’s ability to score points, but I lack faith in their pass rush and will side with Louisville’s high-powered offense.

Pick: Louisville -2.5

Central Florida at Georgia Tech

If you haven’t heard of Jeff Sims, it's just a matter of time.

The true freshman rallied Georgia Tech from a 10-0 halftime deficit, threw for 277 yards (on 24-for-35 passing), and rushed for a team-high 64 yards on 14 carries. He had more completions than any Georgia Tech quarterback since 2003.

Perhaps as impressive, Georgia Tech held Florida State scoreless over the final 20 minutes in the upset. Many expected Florida State to pound the Yellow Jackets, but the Tech defense held the Seminoles to 109 rushing yards and forced three turnovers. Second-year coach Geoff Collins has the program on the upswing.

Central Florida quarterback Dillon Gabriel (3,653 passing yards, 29 touchdowns last year) will have more success against Georgia Tech’s secondary, but he lost a pair of top weapons from last year and preparations have been less than ideal. UCF lost practice time because of COVID-19 concerns and had 10 players (including a couple starters) opt out for the season.

Central Florida may pull this one out, but Georgia Tech can take advantage, with a game under its belt.

I’m grabbing the points.

Pick: Georgia Tech +7

Charlotte at North Carolina

This is a tough matchup for Charlotte, after a physical loss to Appalachian State last week. Even though they gave up 512 yards of total offense, the 49ers hung tough against their conference rival for more than three quarters, but they’ve lost quarterback Chris Reynolds to injury and the defense was exhausted down the stretch last week. Charlotte will struggle to stop North Carolina on every possession.

I’m willing to lay the lumber with North Carolina, even after a sloppy opener against Syracuse. Young and well coached, the Tar Heels will clean up penalties, turnovers, and special teams miscues as the season progresses, and Charlotte won’t be able to keep them bottled up.

Running backs Michael Carter and Javonte Williams should enjoy a huge afternoon. And after he threw for 295 yards last week, quarterback Sam Howell will get the ball more effectively downfield to main targets Dyami Brown and Dazz Newsome.

North Carolina was embarrassed to play so poorly in the first half last week, so I expect no mercy for Charlotte.

Pick: North Carolina -28

James Scully’s 2020 NFL record ATS on BetAmerica heading into Week 3: 2-1