Top 5 NCAAF mammoth spread busters for Week 4

Underdogs had a tough time in Week 3, as only one FBS team covered a +20 or more spread. Here's the real shocker—it was against Alabama. Rest assured, the dogs are back and are ready to bite!

Connecticut (+26.5) at Indiana, Saturday, noon ET, Big Ten Network

The Huskies are not a great football team, but I am not sure Indiana is very good, either. The Hoosiers just took a shellacking at home from Ohio State last week. They also struggled to defeat a Ball State team that has yet to win an FBS game this season.

UConn is coming off a close loss at home against Illinois two weeks ago, when the Huskies outscored the Illini in three quarters. Both teams struggle to run the football, averaging less than 3.2 yards per attempt. In the passing game both teams average 8.3 yards per attempt. UConn converts 39.3% on third down and Indiana converts 41.3%. The numbers are too even for this large of a spread. I like the Huskies to keep this game close.

Central Michigan (+28.5) at Miami-Florida, Saturday, 4 p.m. ET, ACC Network

The last time I picked the Chippewas, they lost by 61 points. Sheesh. They followed that up with a 21-point victory over Akron. Miami has lost both of its games against FBS opponents, and the Hurricanes offensive line has not looked great. It has allowed 14 sacks in those two games.

Central Michigan is coming off a seven-sack performance last week. Miami is 3-12 ATS in the past three seasons when playing a team with a winning record (CMU is 2-1). Central Michigan is 4-2 ATS in the past three seasons coming off a win against a conference rival. The Chippewas will put pressure on the quarterback and force some mistakes to keep this game close.

Baylor at Rice (+26), Saturday, 7 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network

This selection is based on the teams' performances last week. Rice lost to Texas 48-13 and Baylor defeated Texas-San Antonio 63-14. My takeaway is Rice will be able to score around 20-30 points in this game. I also believe Baylor will be limited to 30-40 points. That means the worst-case scenario is a 40-20 Baylor victory.

Old Dominion (+28) at Virginia, Saturday, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN2

The Monarchs continue their Virginia tour to start the season after a loss to Virginia Tech two weeks ago. They lost 31-17 but covered the 29.5-point spread against the Hokies. Virginia will be playing in its first FBS non-conference game of the season. The Cavaliers have defeated Florida State and Pittsburgh in ACC play.

Old Dominion has a solid rushing game, averaging 4.1 yards per carry and 168 yards per game. The Monarchs should be able to establish some time of possession and score enough to cover.

San Jose State (+21) at Arkansas, Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network

This pick is 100% an anti-Arkansas pick. I do not like the Hogs this year, and they have a ton of trends going against them in this matchup. The Razorbacks are 0-7 ATS in the past three seasons following a win. They are also 0-9 ATS in the past three seasons following a non-conference game.

The Spartans are coming off an 18-point defeat to Tulsa, and I believe Tulsa is a better football team than Arkansas. I love San Jose State to keep this game close, and I would consider a small moneyline wager. Also the Spartans can dance in stilettos, so they have that going for them, which is nice.

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