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3 players worth backing to lead after the 1st round of the PGA Championship

Profile Picture: Josh Powell

August 5th, 2020

Backing a first-round leader in a major golf tournament is the perfect way to get you into the swing of things for the weekend ahead — particularly if you find the winner!

The usual key pointers still apply — we’re looking for someone in good form, preferably a golfer who has performed at the course previously — but we want someone who has a proven ability to go low on day one.

Don’t worry too much about whether your pick is a perennial winner. They can miss the cut and be watching the final round from the couch for all you care, as long as they get the business done on Thursday.

It’s all about starting hot, and these three players have the tools to do just that.

1. Rory McIlroy

McIlroy has been well-backed to win the tournament this weekend, but for my money, I’d rather be on the Northern Irishman to lead  Thursday evening.

The two-time PGA Championship winner was in electric form before the enforced break. He posted six top five finishes in a row on the PGA Tour between October and March.

Although not quite in the same form since the return to action, Rory showed he can still go low on the opening day when he shot 63 in the first round of the Travelers Championship at the end of June.

McIlroy also has some valuable course form. TPC Harding Park in San Francisco might not be a regular stop on the PGA Tour, but it did host the WGC-Match Play in 2015, a tournament won by McIlroy.

Most emphatically, however, McIlroy makes this list because he is averaging a score of 68.27 in the first round on the PGA Tour this season, a statistic that ranks him second overall. Combined with some fond memories of the course, this makes him an interesting play for first-round leader.

2. Bryson DeChambeau

McIlroy may rank second in round-one scoring on tour this season, but the only man who outranks him is DeChambeau.

The 26-year-old has never finished better than 15th in a major, but that doesn’t concern us. Through 13 opening rounds on tour this season, nobody has come close to shooting as low an average as DeChambeau.

In his six tournaments since the break, DeChambeau’s finishes after the first round were T7-T16-T11-T4-T42-T9. If you can ignore the blip in the Memorial, that’s a tidy form line to give you a run for your money.

Don’t discount, either, that DeChambeau’s hometown is only a couple hours drive from Harding Park. This is basically his backyard, and he is accustomed to playing well on the West Coast. Plus, his booming drive is going to be well suited on this California course.

3. Tony Finau

It may be more than four years since Finau won on the PGA Tour, but this is a prime example of a player at a big price who has proven he can shoot low on the opening day.

At the PGA Championship in 2017, he shot an opening-day 69 to finish two shots off the lead, in a tie for eighth, and he comes into this tournament firing on all cylinders.

He was the clubhouse leader after the opening round of the Memorial last month (he shot 66), and he carded a 65 in the 3M Open a week later to put him third after the opening round.

The American might be considered a bottler by some golf punters, but to bottle a lead you have to first have the lead, and it’s worth a flyer on Finau to be top of the pile as night falls on day one.


Find the full list of prop odds for the PGA Championship at BetAmerica!

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