The best prop bets for the 2021 Hero World Challenge

The G.O.A.T. of the golfing world, Tiger Woods, will host the Hero World Challenge this week at the Albany Golf Course in the Bahamas.

It may technically be an unofficial event, but the $1 million winner’s check is straight up legit. The top 18 players in the world, plus two specially selected picks from Tiger himself, will go at it on a course designed by another legend of this great game – Ernie Els.

It’s a ridiculously high-class field on a course that is a little unusual in that it has five par 5s and five par 4s, rather than the usual four and four.

For armchair fans sitting at home, the scenery is fantastic – obviously, it’s in the Bahamas – and any player with good links golf under their belt should do well because the wind can pick up.

Here are the four best player prop bets, as we get set to soak up some top-notch golf to end the year.

Matchbet: Jordan Spieth to beat Bryson DeChambeau (-106)

Anyone who might have stumbled across my golf columns previously will know I’m a huge fan of the Diaper Dimension, so it shouldn’t be a surprise that I’m all over Jordan Spieth’s chances this week. No. 11 in the Official World Golf Ranking, Spieth welcomed his son, Sam, into the world two weeks ago, and because it was Jordan’s first, and it was a boy, the Diaper Dimension is in full force.

Spieth has three top-10 finishes from five Phoenix Open events at TPC Scottsdale, which is a course that correlates well here.

At the Hero World Challenge, he has finished fourth, sixth, third, and 16th in his four appearances in this event.

The 12-time PGA Tour winner has had a get-right 2021, winning the Texas Open and posting another eight top-10 finishes from 17 tournaments. After a break following the Ryder Cup, Spieth returned to finish a solid 18th in the CJ Cup, and he flashed enough to beat Bryson DeChambeau.

There are five par 5s at this course that Bryson could destroy, but he admitted last week during "The Match" that he hasn’t touched a club since the Ryder Cup, and his course form of 12th and 15th doesn’t inspire confidence.

Matchbet: Rory McIlroy to beat Justin Thomas (-114)

Rory looked like a certain winner of the DP World Tour Championship last week before a bizarre half-an-hour spell. As Collin Morikawa birdied five of the last seven holes, McIlroy imploded and bogeyed three of them. That eight-shot swing cost the Northern Irishman.

He was understandably furious, but his game is in great shape, as shown when he won the CJ Cup in mid-October.

This is McIlroy’s debut at Albany, but he has won the DP World Tour Championship twice before, which is an excellent correlating course, and we know how good a links player he is, which should be beneficial here.

Justin Thomas was fifth here last year and is in good form, having finished third in the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba this month. However, his fifth-place finish was his only top 10 in four attempts at the Hero World Challenge, and McIlroy can channel his Dubai frustrations into a strong performance to beat him.  

Matchbet: Tony Finau to beat Brooks Koepka (-137)

Brooks is fresh off his dominant performance in "The Match," where he beat longtime foe DeChambeau, but Tony Finau should be able to get the better of him here.

Finau’s long game is nothing short of excellent, and this course seems to bring out the best in him.

In 2018, on his debut at the tournament, he finished runner-up to Jon Rahm, then last year, he finished 10th. That performance is better than it sounds, however, as he had to recover from an opening round of 79. Over the next 54 holes, the only players to outscore him were Rahm (again!) and Henrik Stenson.

Koepka has finished outside the top 10 in two of his three visits here (finishing seventh in the other), and while he shouldn’t lack motivation in this high-quality field, his form in recent months leaves plenty to be desired.

He can, of course, turn it on when he needs to, but Finau is a much stronger play this week.

Matchbet: Matthew Fitzpatrick to beat Tyrrell Hatton (-120)

I’ve already touched on how form in Dubai at the DP World Tour Championship correlates well to Albany, and that should play into the favor of debutant Matthew Fitzpatrick.

He has won that event twice and was runner-up there when we last saw him, putting in another impressive performance on what is a long course.

A winner on the European Tour recently, Fitzpatrick has good form coming into this event, and if the wind picks up at all during the weekend, it will play into his hands.

Hatton had an unbelievable start to the year and was red hot about 12 months ago, when he posted six top-10 finishes in 10 events, including wins in the BMW PGA Championship on the European Tour and the Abu Dhabi Championship.

But his form is patchy again now. In his last 11 events, he has missed the cut five times, but also has four top-20 finishes and was runner-up in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship.

He’s hard to get right and may be looking forward to the holiday break, so with that in mind take Fitzpatrick.