The best prop bets for the 2021 RSM Classic

The curtain is about to fall on the PGA Tour for 2021, as we head to Sea Island in Georgia for the RSM Classic.

Picking a winner in golf can be tricky enough, and this event certainly throws up its fair share of surprises, with each of the last five winners starting out at +5000 or higher.

The par-70 Seaside course will be played three times this week, and the Plantation course will be played just once, as players brace themselves for windy conditions and links-style golf.

Recent results suggest that driving accuracy, rather than length, is important here, but both are outweighed by a red-hot putter.

Anyone who is accurate off the tee, has an in-form flatstick, and is good in windy conditions or on links courses is worth another look as we try to end 2021 on a high.

Top Swedish player: Alex Noren (-110)

Noren has some fantastic previous form at Sea Island, where he finished 10th on his debut and 18th last year.

In both events, he shot rounds of 65 and has taken a clear liking to the course, in which his strong short game comes to the fore.

Results have been solid of late, finishing fourth in the Northern Trust and ninth in the BMW Championship, among high-quality fields.

Back on the European Tour, he was 12th in the Dunhill Links Championship. Two starts ago, he flashed some more quality golf, as he finished 18th in the Zozo Championship.

A good result here will lift Noren into the top 50 in the world, so that little bit of extra motivation could see him hit what looks like a straightforward prop bet.

Top-30 finish: Patrick Rodgers (+225)

The recent Bermuda Championship is a fantastic pointer to this event. Similar courses throw up similar results, with 2019 Bermuda Championship winner Brendon Todd finishing fourth here a few weeks later, after he led through 54 holes.

Last year, Brian Gay won the Bermuda Championship after finishing third and fourth in this event.

So that’s a positive pointer for Patrick Rodgers, who finished fourth in the Bermuda Championship after leading through 36 holes.

Rodgers has missed the last two cuts of this event, but before that, he was 10th in 2017 and second in 2019, so the course clearly fits his style of play, if he can find that magic touch.

With two top 10s in his last four tournaments, I’m willing to take that chance.

Top-40 finish: Denny McCarthy (+125)

Denny McCarthy is a man on the up. At the end of October, he finished 39th in the Bermuda Championship, but has followed that up by finishing 15th in the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba and then 11th last week in the Houston Open.

He finished second and sixth in greens in regulation on those last two starts, and his short game is looking dialed in, which will be a serious plus here.

McCarthy was third in the Honda Classic this year and commented on how much he enjoyed playing that course in the wind, plus how the Bermuda greens suited his putting.

That’s music to our ears, and while he missed the cut in this event 12 months ago, he finished eighth a year earlier.

Given his recent form, there’s lots to like about his chances of a top-40 finish.

Top-40 finish: Bronson Burgoon (+200)

Considering the wild nature of this event and the number of winners who have lifted the trophy at big odds, I’m throwing a dart at Bronson Burgoon.

One of his best performances of last season came at this course, where he was in contention throughout before a final-day 71 saw him drop to 15th.

Burgoon won his card back, in no small part due to his efforts in the Nationwide Children’s Hospital Championship on the Korn Ferry Tour, where he finished second.

His approach play was outstanding that day, and a similar effort could see him have a good weekend in Georgia.

He’s missed two cuts in his four tournaments this year, but they were sandwiched between a finish of 16th in the Fortinet Championship and 35th in the Houston Open.

If Burgoon can heat up his putter, he’s got a great chance of making the top 40 at tempting odds.