The best prop bets for the 2022 Waste Management Phoenix Open

All eyes in America this weekend are going to be on the Super Bowl and a star-studded halftime show feature Eminem, Snoop Dogg, and Dr. Dre. But before the showdown in California, the best of the best in the golfing world are going to "Drop It Like It's Hot" in Scottsdale, Arizona in the Phoenix Open.

You could "Lose Yourself" in the statistics for TPC Scottsdale, but the key thing is that this course is all about the approach play. Players who hit plenty of greens make up the top of the leaderboard, and excellent ball strikers from tee to green also excel.

The Super Bowl crowd is going to be raucous for the halftime show, but that atmosphere will be mirrored at this course’s famous par 3 16th hole. It’s rowdy, it’s loud, and it makes for a thrilling finish to each round, with the 15th and 17th holes offering plenty of danger with water in play.

Here are the four best prop bets for this year’s edition of the Phoenix Open.

Top 10 Finish: Jordan Spieth (+188)

Jordan Spieth did the business for this column last week. Not only did he secure a Top 20 finish, but he threw the tournament away after holding the lead with just a few holes to go. But that runner-up finish was still good enough for our prop bet, and most promising was Spieth’s iron play as he ranked first for strokes gained approaching the green.

Those dialed-in irons are a great sign as he heads to the Phoenix Open, where he has previously finished fourth, seventh, and ninth. That’s three top 10s in five starts here, and of course, he’s still benefiting from the Diaper Dimension.

Last year he fired a career-best round of 61 at this course on Saturday, which gave him a share of the lead going into the final day, and those fond memories should come flooding back this week. Spieth’s game is in great shape, and he should be well in the mix again this week as he looks to make up for last week’s disappointment.

Top American Player (1-5): Justin Thomas (+225)

This course is all about having red-hot irons, and is there a better player when it comes to approach shots than Justin Thomas? It’s a good argument next time you’re at the bar, but JT must be in the conversation for top three.

His irons have looked good again this year, as he finished fifth in the Tournament of Champions – shooting a stunning 61 on Saturday – and then posted a Top 20 finish in the Farmers Insurance Open. Thomas has career wins at TPC Kuala Lumpur, TPC Boston, TPC Southwind, and TPC Sawgrass, so this network of courses clearly suit his game, and conditions will suit him perfectly this week.

Here he has four top 17 finishes in his last four efforts. He finished 17th in 2018 with a closing 66, before he put in two third place finishes in 2019 and 2020. 12 months ago, he finished 13th, however, that result could have been even better. He came into the final round in the top five, but his grandfather passed away the night before and it clearly impacted JT.

Phil Mickelson’s ex-caddy, Jim MacKay, is now on Thomas’ bag as well, and that’s just another huge positive going into the week. +225 looks a great price for Thomas to be one of the top five American players.

Top European Player (1-3): Russell Knox (+350)

Jon Rahm leads the prop betting market for the top European player, and while it pains me to go against him, I think Knox has a great chance of being one of the top three European players courtesy of some sneaky good recent form.

On the face of it, his form line doesn’t look incredible – he opened the year by finishing seventh in the Sony Open, before missing the cut in the American Express and then finishing 33rd in the AT&T Pebble Beach. But there were signs of hope as Knox finished inside the top 10 for shots gained approaching the green in two of those tournaments.

If he can keep those irons hot, he should perform well here, especially as he has three top 16 finishes here in six attempts. If he can put it all together, Knox looks a solid value bet this week.

Top 30 Finish: Adam Hadwin (+150)

Canadian Adam Hadwin has had a solid start to 2022, finishing 25th in the American Express and 16th in the AT&T Pebble Beach. The reason he jumps out in this prop bet is because of his unreal form in the desert.

In the American Express at La Quinta, he has four top six finishes in the last five tournaments, and here he has previously had two Top 20 finishes in the last six years. His other four efforts here have resulted in finishes between 50th and 40th, so he’ll need to step up on that, but there’s plenty of evidence to suggest he can.

Hadwin finished second in strokes gained tee to green in Pebble Beach and seventh for shots gained on approach, so his game is in great shape. If he can build on that good recent form at a course that should suit him, he is a great bet to crack the Top 30.