Can Verlander challenge Cole in AL Cy Young race?

Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole were part of a thrilling battle for American League Cy Young honors in 2019, and the former defeated his Astros teammate in the voting by a skinny, 12-point margin.

After he signed a massive contract with the Yankees (nine years, $324 million), Cole has been stamped by oddsmakers as a +180 favorite to win the 2020 Cy Young. Verlander is the second choice at +800.

Which pitcher is a better bet? Let's investigate.

Cole may miss Minute Maid Park

Cole went on an incredible run from May 27 on in 2019 (26 games without a loss, playoffs inclusive), but he was 4-5 with a 4.11 ERA through his first 11 starts. In a season that’s likely to be truncated because of the COVID-19 pandemic, Cole’s margin for error is slim.

Cole’s WHIP at Houston's Minute Maid Park (17 starts) in 2019 was 0.788, compared to 1.017 everywhere else (16 starts), and his strikeout-walk ratio increased dramatically at home (9.16), compared to his away figure (5.24).

Yankee Stadium likely won't be as welcoming.

Verlander was consistent in 2019

Verlander, who led the majors in wins (21), innings pitched (223), and WHIP (0.803) last season, added a second Cy Young to his mantle. He won both the AL Cy Young and MVP in 2011.

Unlike his former teammate, Verlander delivered consistent efforts at home and on the road in 2019. Though his road ERA (2.82) was nearly a half-point higher than his home ERA (2.34), Verlander’s WHIP (0.761 on the road, 0.844 at home) and strikeout-walk ratio (7.75 road, 6.59 home) were better away from Minute Maid Park. Opponents also had a lower batting average against “JV” at home (.164) than in Houston (.180).

Verlander is a wiser wager

The odds may be skewed to this degree because Cole outshined Verlander in the 2019 postseason. Cole went 4-1 with a 1.72 ERA, while Verlander struggled, with a 1-4 record and a 4.33 ERA.

But savvy bettors will realize that Verlander is the wiser wager in this regular-season market and act accordingly. 

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