MLB odds update: Astros seize second-choice status in World Series wagering

The ascendant Houston Astros have emerged as the top contenders for the 2021 World Series in the American League. They’re now the +650 second-choice to win their first Fall Classic since 2017, sitting behind the reigning World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers (+380). Just over a month ago, the Astros were a +1600 dark horse.

Are the Astros worth a wager now, or is there another team that bettors should look toward instead? Let’s investigate.

The case for the Astros

There is talent up and down the Houston lineup, even with Alex Bregman (quad) out for the foreseeable future. Yuli Gurriel and Michael Brantley have been on-base machines (.393 and .384 OBP, respectively), and middle infielders Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa have provided plenty of pop (18 and 16 homers, respectively). Not surprisingly, the ‘Stros have plated the most runs per game in the major leagues (5.60).

The Astros’ rotation has been solid if not spectacular in 2021, with the lone household name in Zack Greinke (8-2, 3.65 ERA) serving as the ace. Luis Garcia, Jose Urquidy, and Lance McCullers Jr. have combined to produce quality starts in over half their outings this season.

The case against the Astros

The Achilles’ Heel with the Astros is clearly their bullpen, which is 18th in the majors by ERA (4.20). Ryan Pressly (14 saves from 15 chances) has been solid, but his compatriots have struggled mightily.

Ryne Stanek (37 games) has blown three saves while producing an awful 2.00 strikeout/walk ratio. Brooks Raley, Brandon Bielak, and Joe Smith (currently on the IL) all have an ERA of 6.00 or worse this season.

It’s also worth noting that the Oakland A’s (49-36) are fielding a solid team this year, and are just 2.5 games behind Houston in the AL West.

Don’t sleep on the Chicago White Sox

The White Sox have been a tricky team to get a read on in 2021, with injuries to key players like Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert, Nick Madrigal, and Aaron Bummer playing no small part in that. Chicago was available at +1400 on May 1 but currently rest at +800, fourth-choice behind the Dodgers, Astros, and San Diego Padres (+750).

Despite their injury woes, the South Siders own a six-game lead in the AL Central, and are second only to the Astros in run differential among American League teams (+95). The White Sox path to the playoffs is clearly easier than the Astros’ path.

Tim Anderson and Jose Abreu continue to be major contributors to the Chicago offense, but pleasant surprises like Andrew Vaughn (1.320 OPS last six games) and Gavin Sheets (six hits in his first five MLB games) have been difference-makers. Their staff ERA (3.59) is second in the AL as well.