MLB odds update: Red Sox, Rays in tight battle for AL East crown

One of the biggest pleasant surprises of the 2021 season has the been the dramatic improvement of the Boston Red Sox. After going just 24-36 in 2020, they’re now tied for the American League lead in wins at the All-Star break with the Houston Astros (55), and sit 1 1/2 games ahead of the defending AL champion Tampa Bay Rays in the AL East. Oddsmakers are indicating that the Red Sox are the team to beat for the AL East crown, as they’re -129, compared to the Rays’ +130 mark.

All five teams in the division are currently alive, but the Toronto Blue Jays (+1100), New York Yankees (+1200), or Baltimore Orioles (+30000) winning at this point would feel like a major upset (the Orioles would be an all-timer). Let’s dive into the statistics and see if the Red Sox or the Rays are the better bet to win the AL East.

The case for the Red Sox

Boston won 11 of its last 16 games to close out the unofficial first half of the campaign, and beat the Rays in four of six head-to-head meetings.

The Red Sox starters have been consistent and fairly injury-free. All-Star selection Nathan Eovaldi has been the ace of the staff, producing a 3.66 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Garrett Richards, Eduardo Rodriguez, Martin Perez, and Nick Pivetta have all worked at least 80 innings in 2021. Rodriguez could be due for a second-half surge, as three of his final four first-half outings were quality starts.

This unit will get a huge boost once Chris Sale returns from Tommy John surgery.

Adam Ottavino and All-Star closer Matt Barnes have been two of the better relievers in the AL, combining for 26 saves. They’ve lead the Boston bullpen to an eighth-place ranking by ERA (3.57).

However, the Red Sox have been an offense-first team this year, as they’re fifth in baseball in runs per game (5.10). Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, and J.D. Martinez were all deserving All-Star selections, as each posted an OPS above .910. This unit will be a nightmare for opposing managers come playoff time.

The case for the Rays

The Tampa starters have not been as fortunate as Boston’s in terms of injuries. Only Tyler Glasnow, Rich Hill, and Ryan Yarbrough have exceeded 80 innings in 2021, and Glasnow is out indefinitely with an partially-torn UCL. With none of the Rays’ healthy top-five starters boasting an ERA below 3.74, this is not an intimidating unit.

However, Tampa’s bread-and-butter is their bullpen, which boasts the second-best ERA in the majors (3.26). Diego Castillo leads the way in saves with 13, though he’s just one of five Rays relievers to post at least two saves this season.

The most surprising thing about Tampa’s sustained repeat bid for AL East honors is their improved offense, which has not been bolstered by any type of MVP campaign by Randy Arozarena (.733 OPS). The Rays are seventh in runs per game (4.89) despite just two of their regulars owning an OPS above .800 (Austin Meadows and Mike Zunino).

The verdict

As has been the case over the last few seasons, it’s difficult to determine exactly how the Rays are putting together this run. It’s clearly a case of the whole being greater than the sum of the parts.

But the Red Sox seem like the better bet, as it’s unlikely their offense will go dormant like the Rays’ did in the 2020 postseason (aside from Arozarena). Their starters have overachieved, but Sale’s return should help keep this unit from going belly-up. Additionally, Boston’s bullpen is capable of going toe-to-toe with Tampa’s on any given day.