MLB picks: Nationals vs. Mets, Diamondbacks vs. Rockies

Our two best bets for Monday evening occur in a pair of divisional matchups. First, the 2019 World Series champion Washington Nationals make their first road trip of the year as they face the New York Mets in the Big Apple, while the Arizona Diamondbacks head to Denver to take on the Colorado Rockies.

Washington Nationals (4-7) at New York Mets (7-9), 7:10 p.m. ET

A mini home run derby could break out at Citi Field on Monday night as Patrick Corbin and the Nationals visit Steven Matz and the Mets.

When these pitchers met in Washington last Tuesday, Matz allowed a pair of solo shots in the first two innings to Howie Kendrick and Josh Harrison, respectively. Five hits and three more runs later, he was hooked after only three frames. That continued a negative trend for Matz against the Nats, who are hitting over .300 as a team against the southpaw from Long Island dating back to 2018. The defending World Series champs should relish the fact that the wind will be blowing out on Monday night. 

Corbin has often been bitten by the longball when facing the Mets – Michael Conforto took him deep for a fifth time in 22 career at-bats last Tuesday. J.D. Davis has three homers against Corbin, and even light-hitting shortstop Amed Rosario has a pair of deep-flies off the Chipola College product.

The Mets’ bullpen has surrendered just one home run this month (28 innings), but the Nationals’ relief corps has allowed four in only 20 innings of work.

MLB free play: Over

Arizona Diamondbacks (6-10) at Colorado Rockies (11-4), 8:40 p.m. ET

Oddsmakers can’t set the total high enough for Monday night’s game at Coors Field – where the wind will be blowing out at 10 mph – as the Diamondbacks begin a three-game series with the Rockies.

Robbie Ray will be the visiting hurler, and he’s looked lost on the mound in 2020, going 1-2 with a 9.45 ERA. Colorado’s lineup – the best in the majors by batting average at .263 – is bound to give him trouble in this one. Outfielder Charlie Blackmon, pacing the majors in batting average at .458, is 20-for-46 all-time against the Tennessee native (.435). Ray is backed by a mediocre bullpen that’s produced a 4.11 ERA on the year (18th).

Countering for the Rockies is Jon Gray, who owns a solid 3.31 ERA on the campaign but has struggled against some of Arizona’s best batters in the past. Ketel Marte and David Peralta are a combined 15-for-37 (.405) all-time against Gray.

MLB free play: Over