MLB picks: Orioles vs. Phillies, Cardinals vs. Brewers

Here are our best bets on the diamond for Monday night!

We’ll start with a look at the interleague series opener between the Baltimore Orioles and the Philadelphia Phillies. Then we’ll jump into an NL Central showdown between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Milwaukee Brewers.

Baltimore Orioles (47-102) at Philadelphia Phillies (76-73), 7:05 p.m. ET

The Orioles and Phillies will send two of their better starters to the hill in John Means and Ranger Suarez, respectively, but Over bettors should still come out on top in this one.

Means has had difficulty preventing the home run ball of late, serving up nine four-baggers in his last seven starts (38 1/3 innings). That does not auger will for him as he takes the mound at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park. With the way Bryce Harper is swinging the bat at present – 18-for-42 (.429) with six homers and 16 RBI since Labor Day – that is especially true.

Ranger Suarez counters for the Phillies, fresh off consecutive quality starts. However, he’s pitched into the seventh inning just once in 2021, meaning extra work is in store for a Phillies bullpen that’s next-to-last in the majors by ERA over the last two weeks (7.25). Sitting in last place in that span are none other than the Orioles, at a garish 9.16 ERA.

With Baltimore averaging 4.44 runs per game in September, and Philly averaging 4.88 in the same stretch, this looks like an easy call for totals bettors.

MLB pick: Over

St. Louis Cardinals (79-69) at Milwaukee Brewers (91-58), 7:40 p.m. ET

Bettors should expect few runs to come across as the Brewers host the Cardinals on Monday night.

Jake Woodford gets the nod for visiting St. Louis, sporting a 2.03 ERA in September. That includes 5 1/3 shutout innings against Milwaukee on Sept. 4. He’s backed by a Redbirds bullpen that owns a 2.64 ERA over the last two weeks, good for third in the majors in that span.

Freddy Peralta responds for the Brew Crew, and he exits his best start since returning from the IL – six innings of shutout baseball against the Detroit Tigers. Josh Hader and Devin Williams are rested and ready after sitting idle on Sunday, so they should be able to keep things from getting out of hand late.

Trend bettors should note that the Under has cashed in 13 of the last 16 Cardinals series openers, and is 19-7-3 in the Brewers’ last 29 games following a loss.

MLB pick: Under