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mlb

MLB picks: Phillies vs. Nationals, Royals vs. Tigers

Profile Picture: Robert Criscola

May 11th, 2021

Let’s focus on a pair of divisional games as we make our Tuesday night baseball selections.

We’ll kick things off with a preview of the Philadelphia Phillies and Washington Nationals series opener, before motoring over to Detroit for a look at the Tigers’ tussle with the Kansas City Royals.

Philadelphia Phillies (18-17) at Washington Nationals (13-17), 7:05 p.m. ET

Tue, May 11 2021, 11:05 PM

WAS Nationals

Moneyline

-132

Run Line

-1.5

Total

O 9

PHI Phillies

Moneyline

+114

Run Line

+1.5

Total

U 9

The Nationals will welcome Chase Anderson and the Phillies to Washington with open arms on Tuesday night.

Anderson has failed to pitch beyond five frames in six straight starts to open the season. His 1.50 WHIP is the primary culprit. The Nats have been a nightmare opponent for Anderson; through three starts against them (9 1/3 innings), his ERA is a ghastly 16.39, and his WHIP a woeful 2.679.

Bettors should anticipate productive games from Josh Harrison and Yan Gomes, who are a combined 11-for-23 (.478) off Anderson with seven extra-base hits.

All Erick Fedde needs to do for Washington is pitch five decent innings and hand things off to the superior Nats bullpen, which sports a 2.67 ERA over the last two weeks – good for seventh in the majors. By contrast, Philadelphia’s relief corps is 19th with a 4.39 ERA in the same span.

Fedde – not surprisingly – has struggled against Bryce Harper (4-for-11, two homers) in the past. However, his numbers against the Phillies’ supporting cast – like Didi Gregorius (2-for-13) and Jean Segura (2-for-10) – are solid.

The Phillies are 16-36 in their last 52 road games, while the Nationals are 19-7 in their last 26 home games against teams with winning records.

MLB pick: Nationals -132


Kansas City Royals (16-17) at Detroit Tigers (10-24), 7:10 p.m. ET

Tue, May 11 2021, 11:10 PM

DET Tigers

Moneyline

+110

Run Line

+1.5

Total

O 7.5

KC Royals

Moneyline

-127

Run Line

-1.5

Total

U 7.5

Based on the starting pitching matchup and the trends surrounding these two offenses, Tuesday night’s series opener between the Royals and Tigers should be very low-scoring.

Brady Singer begins for Kansas City, and he aced the Tigers when these teams met on April 24, holding Detroit’s MLB-worst offense (3.26 runs per game) to one run over seven frames. His opposite number that day was Matthew Boyd, who gets the nod for Detroit here.

Boyd was ready to return from a knee injury on Sunday, but his start was postponed due to rain, giving him extra recovery time. He was dominant against the Royals in his last full start, going eight innings while allowing just one earned run.

Kansas City’s offense is in a rut right now, as they’ve plated just four runs combined in their last four games.

Trend bettors should note that the Under is 20-6 in the Royals’ last 26 games against left-handed starters, and 14-6-1 in the Tigers’ last 21 division games.

MLB pick: Under

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