MLB picks: Reds vs. Brewers, Pirates vs. White Sox

The Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers are fighting to stay in the playoff hunt. We’ll handicap their Tuesday night matchup along with the series-opening game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago White Sox.

Cincinnati Reds (11-16) at Milwaukee Brewers (12-15), 8:10 p.m. ET

The Reds appear to be offering good value against the Brewers at Miller Park.

Luis Castillo will be on the hill for Cincinnati, and while his 2020 stats look weak at first blush (0-3, 4.44 ERA), deeper analysis reveals he’s been burned in a particular situation that he won’t be up against on Tuesday night.

Castillo has twice faced a team a second time in less than a week this year, and his ERA in those games is 7.91. When facing teams for the first time in 2020 (three starts), his ERA is a much more palatable 2.65. In 26 innings of work against Milwaukee last year, his opponent batting average was .179. Brewers sluggers Christian Yelich and Ryan Braun are a combined 3-for-23 (.130) against Castillo all-time.

The Reds’ offense has not had much to be proud of this season (27th in runs per game), but first baseman Joey Votto and outfielder Jesse Winker have to be looking forward to facing Brewers starter Brandon Woodruff this evening. They’re 12-for-20 (.600) all-time against him with three homers and seven RBIs.

Cincinnati’s bullpen appears to be improving. Their ERA over the last week is 2.79, eighth in the majors in that span. Milwaukee’s relievers were awful in that same time frame – 29th with an 8.22 ERA.

MLB pick: Reds moneyline

Pittsburgh Pirates (7-17) at Chicago White Sox (17-12), 8:10 p.m. ET

The Pirates are fresh off a series sweep of the Brewers, while the White Sox sluggers were stymied in a 2-1 defeat to the Cubs when last seen. But bettors should not be fooled – the South Siders are a far superior team and should prove it on Tuesday night.

Before scoring just one run on Sunday, Chicago’s lineup was averaging 7.86 runs per game over their previous seven contests. First baseman Jose Abreu (responsible for Sunday’s run thanks to his solo shot in the second inning) did the majority of the damage, going deep seven times in that span. Pittsburgh starter Steven Brault has yet to pitch past the fifth inning this year, so the White Sox should get plenty of looks against a Pirates bullpen that is 25th in baseball by ERA (5.48).

Lucas Giolito toes the rubber for Chicago against a Bucs offense that’s 23rd in runs per game in 2020 (4.25). He’s fresh off a masterful performance against the Tigers in which he scattered three hits over seven shutout innings while striking out 13 batters. Giolito is backed by a bullpen that produced a 1.50 ERA over the last week.

MLB pick: White Sox runline