NLDS betting preview: Dodgers vs. Nationals

The Nationals prevailed over the Brewers in Tuesday night's Wild Card Game, which sets up a showdown with the Dodgers. Here's what bettors need to know going into this best-of-five National League Division Series, which begins Thursday.

Starting pitching

The Dodgers boast baseball's best starting ERA (3.11) and lowest opponent batting average (.225). It's not yet clear in what order Clayton Kershaw (16-5, 3.03 ERA), Hyun-Jin Ryu (14-5, 2.31 ERA) and Walker Buehler (14-4, 3.26 ERA) will start, but that's about as good a top three as there is in the game.

The Nationals will start Patrick Corbin (14-7, 3.25 ERA) in Game 1, before they potentially turn to Stephen Strasburg (18-6, 3.32 ERA)—who tossed three scoreless innings in relief of Max Scherzer (11-7, 2.92 ERA) in the Wild Card Game—for Game 2. Based on Corbin's road splits (6-5, 4.18 ERA, .253 opponent batting average), Washington skipper Dave Martinez probably would have preferred the southpaw toss Game 3 at Nationals Park, but the nature of the postseason did not provide him the leeway.

Edge: Dodgers

Bullpen

The Dodgers had the NL's top bullpen by ERA during the regular season at 3.78. Kenta Maeda and Ross Stripling are capable of pitching more than one inning per appearance and set-up man Pedro Baez is fresh off a September in which he recorded a 0.96 ERA in nine outings. Closer Kenley Jansen (more on him later) was fifth in the league in saves (33).

The Nationals will cross their fingers when their starters are forced to come out, as their bullpen was last in ERA during the regular season (5.66). Closer Sean Doolittle produced a 5.56 ERA in 24 appearances since the All-Star break.

Edge: Dodgers

Lineup

L.A.'s lineup plated the most runs in the NL (886) and socked the most homers of any team on the senior circuit (279). Washington was second in runs (873) but sixth in home runs (231). The Dodgers led the NL in OPS (.810), but the Nats were close behind in second (.796) thanks to guys like third baseman Anthony Rendon (1.010 OPS). Fellow infielders Howie Kendrick (1.077 OPS in September) and Trea Turner (.888 OPS in September) are swinging hot bats going into the postseason, but the lineup thins out behind them.

L.A. manager Dave Roberts has an extremely deep bench and NL MVP frontrunner Cody Bellinger (.305 average, 47 homers, 115 RBIs) in the order. Outfielder Joc Pederson, who recorded a 1.207 OPS in September, is not to be trifled with at the moment.

Edge: Dodgers

X-factor: Kenley Jansen

Jansen was handed 41 save chances by the 106-win Dodgers and blew eight. His 3.71 ERA was the worst of his 10-year career and his WHIP was above 1.000 (1.063) for the first time since 2014. However, if postseason history is any indication, L.A. manager Dave Roberts should not be afraid to send Jansen out to the mound in this series.

Over the last two seasons, both of which featured a Dodgers World Series appearance, Jansen has a 1.65 ERA, 0.659 WHIP and eight saves. A 5.5 strikeout/walk ratio just adds to the impressive numbers. If Jansen lives up to these figures in the NLDS, the Nationals are in serious trouble.

Betting trends

The Dodgers were 59-22 at home this year (72.8 win percentage) and 5-2 when they had the rest advantage over their opponent. The Nationals were a respectable 43-38 on the road in 2019 but just 2-5 when faced with a rest disadvantage.

Pick: Dodgers in four

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