Pete Alonso, Mike Trout favored to hit most home runs in 2021

One of the most eagerly-anticipated and heavily-scrutinized races in baseball season after season is the home run race.

It’s been a wide-open battle over the last few years, and as a result, there are some generous odds to be had on the winner. Even the co-favorites, Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout and New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso, are sitting on the board at +1000.

Let’s discuss their credentials below, and see who might be worthy of a longshot wager.

The case for Trout

The only major leaguer to appear in the Top 5 in home runs in each of the last three seasons is Trout. He smacked 39 longballs in 2018 (tied for fourth), 45 in 2019 (fifth), and 17 in the truncated 2020 campaign (tied for fourth). There’s value in consistency in this market, considering the top three over the last three years have been made up by nine different players.

However, the closest Trout has come to finishing first in the home run race is five short, and that was in the brief 2020 season. He was eight and nine behind, respectively, in 2019 and 2018. Trout has great power, but he’s not swinging for the fences all the time.

The case for Alonso

Alonso led the majors in homers in 2019, as he knocked 53 pitches over the wall in his rookie campaign for the Mets. He got out of the gate very slowly in 2020 but finished strong, winding up tied for seventh with 16 four-baggers.

However, as we mentioned before, consistency in this area has been at a premium in recent years. The last batter to lead the league in homers twice in a three-year span was Chris Davis in 2013 and 2015.

Olson holds longshot appeal

Oakland A’s first baseman Matt Olson (+1800) has demonstrated immense power in parts of five seasons, but he hasn’t been able to put it all together yet.

In 2017, Olson hit 24 homers in only 189 at-bats, a pace of just over one dinger for every eight at-bats. The following season, he came back to earth a bit with 29 homers over 162 games. In 2019, Olson didn’t suit up until May 7, but still managed to hit a career-high 36 longballs.

Like many in 2020, Olson looked lost at the plate, as he was batting .168 heading into September. He closed out the year with a .195 average, suggesting that better things are ahead for 2021. Despite the low average, Olson still managed to hit 14 homers.