Royals’ Adalberto Mondesi favored to lead MLB in stolen bases again in 2021

Kansas City Royals shortstop Adalberto Mondesi was the runaway leader in stolen bases in 2020 with 24, eight clear of Jonathan Villar. That effort was no fluke, as he was a close second in 2019 with 43 swiped bags, three behind Mallex Smith.

As a result, Mondesi has been established as the clear -130 favorite to steal the most bases in 2021. Though some bettors love him so much that they’re wagering on him to win AL MVP, a Spring Training foot injury has to raise a red flag.

Can Mondesi be beaten in this market? Let’s dig into the résumés of some of his main rivals and see if there’s value to be had elsewhere.

Trea Turner (+470)

Washington Nationals shortstop Trea Turner has been a presence on the stolen base leaderboard for the last four seasons. He was third in the majors in swiped bags in 2017 (46), second in 2018 (43), fifth in 2019 (35), and tied for fourth with 12 in 2020.

But considering Turner had a .335 batting average last season – his best season by far in this span and clearly superior to his main rivals in the stolen base department – his 12 swiped bags were a little disappointing.

It’s no sure thing Turner will set out to lead the majors in steals in 2021, even though he gave his recently-born son the middle name of “Dash.”

Ronald Acuna Jr. (+650)

Atlanta Braves outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. flashed his wheels in 2019, when he stole 37 bases, fourth-best in the majors that year. But Acuna walked away with just eight steals in 2020.

Though Acuna posted career-highs in OBP and slugging % in 2020, a 30-point drop in batting average took some of his stolen base opportunities away.

According to reports, however, Acuna looks like he shed significant weight this offseason, perhaps auguring a return to his base-thieving ways.

“I think he feels really good,” Braves manager Brian Snitker told reporters. “I think it will play well for a whole season that he’s not carrying that much weight around.”

Live longshot: Dylan Moore (+4000)

Though he didn’t make his MLB debut until his age 27 season in 2019, infielder Dylan Moore appeared to blossom into a valuable part of the Seattle Mariners’ roster in 2020.

Moore tallied 12 stolen bases last season despite playing just 38 games in an injury-shortened campaign. Moore’s hitting improved dramatically in 2020 – if he can bottle that, he’ll get plenty of opportunities to swipe bags on an improving Mariners team in 2021.