The lightweight round-robin comes to its highly anticipated end, as Charles Oliveira and Dustin Poirier face off for the title at UFC 269. Here are our picks and predictions for Oliveira vs. Poirier.

Poirier aims for title after McGregor detour

After relieving Conor McGregor of the personal burden that was his sanity, Poirier is finally getting the title shot he deserves. Poirier has seemed to hit his stride, going 8-1 with one no-contest in his last 10 bouts.

The “Diamond” has been showing up against the top tier of the division, showing an advanced skill set and excellent preparation each time he enters the Octagon. His bread and butter comes from his strong boxing skills, but he’s just as capable on the ground with seven submissions.

Oliveira must get Poirier on the ground

Oliveira was beaten to death by Michael Chandler in his last fight, but somehow returned to the world of the living to score a breathtaking submission win. The new champion earned a lot of respect that night, but many rightfully consider this to be the true lightweight title fight.

Oliveira has the most finishes in UFC history, with 19 of those 28 finishes being submissions. Though he’ll boast a slight advantage in height and reach against his boxing-minded opponent, Oliveira needs to trust his ground game and avoid trading strikes with Poirier at all costs.

Poirier will take home the gold by KO

It isn’t often a champion is an underdog for their inaugural title defense, but styles make fights, and Poirier is a bad style for Oliveira. Chandler is nowhere near as dynamic of a striker as Poirier, and he had Oliveira dead to rights. The difference in technique won’t produce an immediate stoppage, but Poirier will chip away until he finds an opening for his best punches. 

Not to count Oliveira out, but Poirier is a handful on the ground and a top grappler in the division. It isn’t hard seeing Oliveira getting a submission win, especially as it is his only path to victory. If he fails to take Poirier down, he won’t outwork him in the later rounds.

The call here is that Poirier completes his long journey to a championship by stopping Oliveira. A methodical start may push this past the midpoint of the fight, but Poirier’s striking will end it early.

MMA free pick: Poirier