Darren Till and Derek Brunson face off in a middleweight eliminator in the main event of UFC Fight Night on Saturday, Sept. 4.

We have the latest betting odds and analysis for this critical middleweight showdown below.

Till needs a big win at middleweight

There was a lot of talk about Till moving up to middleweight, potentially facing Israel Adesanya at some point, but he’s underwhelmed so far. Till followed up a split decision win over Kelvin Gastelum with a lopsided loss to Robert Whittaker last July, having suffered a series of injuries in the interim.

What makes Till so intriguing is his crisp striking and movement. He isn’t easy to take down, which is how Brunson has been so successful as of late, and has a less complex target in front of him compared to Whittaker.

Brunson is having the best run of his career

Brunson is as tough as a two dollar steak and as smooth as a Brillo pad. Though he’s as rough as it comes, he is incredibly effective, and has put on a string of huge upset wins as of late. Last March, Brunson derailed the Kevin Holland hype train when he dominated a fighter many thought was destined for big things.

Whereas Till is active as a striker, Brunson is relentless with his wrestling. He will need to rely on crowding Till and limiting his movement, but if he can’t take him to the ground, he will have to try to land a money punch that will swing the momentum his way.

Till will avoid the mat and stop Brunson

As underwhelming as Till has been, this is really the best fight to get him back in everyone’s good graces. While Brunson is going to fight like the bigger man, Till’s precise striking and his footwork are going to give him fits.

Five of Brunson’s seven losses came from strikes, and his recent run have come against foes that are nowhere near as refined as Till. Should Brunson be unable to impose his size on Till, he’ll get diced up with the fighting looking uglier by the minute.

Unless Till hasn’t recovered from the MCL tear from the Whittaker fight, he will have no trouble finding his range and opening up on Brunson. He’ll chip away until Brunson is ready to go, and Till will stop him inside three rounds.

UFC Fight Night pick: Till