Misha Cirkunov hit his ceiling at light heavyweight, and is now hoping a trip down to middleweight against Krzysztof Jotko will open new doors. This clash between tried and tested veterans is one of the more intriguing bouts of the Oct. 2 edition of UFC Fight Night, and we have the betting odds, preview, and pick for the bout below.

Cirkunov testing the waters at middleweight

Cirkunov’s recent stretch of bad luck all but ended his run as an elite light heavyweight. Ryan Spann bludgeoned him six months ago, and he’s been trading wins with stoppage losses for the last three years.

The Canadian submission specialist is a solid grappler, and he’ll be massive provided he doesn’t have a problem shedding weight. Cirkunov’s persistent takedowns and submission attempts have made him a solid finisher, with only two of his fifteen wins going the full distance.

Jotko’s steady pace is key

Nothing about Jotko stands out when it comes to the loaded middleweight division, but he’s able to pace himself well and can be a tricky southpaw. However, being decent in most regards didn’t help him from being whitewashed by Sean Strickland three months ago in a lopsided bout.

Jotko boasts an 87% takedown defense. If he can shut down Cirkunov’s offense, all he may need to do is target his gas tank and see how his conditioning will be after squeezing down a whole division lighter.

Cirkunov will submit Jotko early

Assuming Cirkunov makes weight, he’ll possess an uncanny size advantage over Jotko and will overwhelm him with his grappling. Because Jotko is a light hitting and conventional striker, Cirkunov should have no problem taking him down in a scene reminiscent of Jaws when the great white sunk its teeth into Quint.

If Cirkunov has trouble bypassing Jotko’s southpaw jab and can’t take him down, then he’ll be on the wrong side of a boring decision. Instead, he’ll likely take plenty of chances and aggressively pursue a submission.

This is Cirkunov’s fight to lose. Jotko simply doesn’t possess the qualities that doomed Cirkunov in the past, and won’t be able to keep the bigger man off him. Expect the Canadian to have a successful middleweight debut, choking out Jotko by the end of the first round.

UFC Fight Night pick: Cirkunov