NASCAR Quaker State 400 odds and value picks
William Byron drives the #24 Hendrick Motorsports Axalta Chevrolet Camaro at Phoenix Raceway. (Photo by Kevin Abele/Icon Sportswire)
July 9th, 2021
The NASCAR Cup Series rolls into Atlanta Motor Speedway for the second and final time in 2021 for the Quaker State 400 (3:30 p.m. ET, NBCSN). Ryan Blaney was the winner when the drivers raced here last March, but the man who led the most laps that day and finished second – Kyle Larson (269) – is the +225 betting favorite.
As always, we’ll try to beat the chalk with our top three selections for Sunday’s race in Atlanta.
Quaker State 400
Sun, July 11 2021, 7:30 PM
Larson, Kyle
+225
Busch, Kyle
+750
Elliott, Chase
+900
Hamlin, Denny
+1000
Harvick, Kevin
+1000
Truex Jr, Martin
+1000
Blaney, Ryan
+1200
Byron, William
+1200
Keselowski, Brad
+1400
Bowman, Alex
+1600
Kyle Busch (+750)
Kyle Busch is a distant but solid second-choice in the wagering for the Quaker State 400.
Busch has two career victories at Atlanta, and is second only to Larson in average finishing position among active drivers (13.48). He’s also third in laps led with 439.
"Tires were the saving grace." 🙏@KyleBusch used fresh tires to grab his 101st NASCAR #XfinitySeries win at @roadamerica! pic.twitter.com/XeFpSC1yHs
— NASCAR Xfinity (@NASCAR_Xfinity) July 3, 2021
“The Candy Man” has averaged a Top 5 finish over his last four races here, placing in seven out of eight possible stages in that span. He’ll be alongside polesitter Chase Elliott when the field takes the green flag on Sunday, as NASCAR’s performance-based metric was used to set the field this week.
William Byron (+1200)
A late incident ruined what should have been a solid finish for William Byron at Road America last week. However, he should bounce back in a big way at Atlanta.
William Byron has the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking at 1.5 mile tracks and the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking at high tire-wear tracks!
— Ryan (@ifantasyrace) July 7, 2021
1.5's --> https://t.co/ju1g7tgucB
High Tire-wear --> https://t.co/vaxPUThB8y pic.twitter.com/wbFABLgiRu
Byron is frequently in the hunt at 1 1/2-mile racetracks. In fact, only he and Busch have finished inside the Top 10 in all five races at 1 1/2-mile courses in 2021. The No. 24 Chevrolet driver was eighth over this circuit last March, placing in both Stage 1 and Stage 2.
Byron has led at least five laps in six of the last eight points-paying Cup Series races. He’s a decent bet to overcome his 19th-place starting position this Sunday.
Alex Bowman (+1600)
Byron’s Hendrick Motorsports teammate – Alex Bowman – is also worthy of a longshot look in the Quaker State 400.
RETWEET TO CONGRATULATE ALEX BOWMAN ON HIS NASCAR CUP SERIES WIN AT POCONO!
— FOX: NASCAR (@NASCARONFOX) June 26, 2021
Wow. A flat tire for Larson ... pic.twitter.com/3y28N0lkys
Bowman posted his best career finish at Atlanta – a third – last March, placing in both stages in the process. Despite a 22nd-place finish at Road America last week, it’s been a banner year for Bowman, who has three victories. He's tied for second in that department with Martin Truex Jr., and is just one win behind Larson on the season.
The No. 48 Chevrolet driver will begin his day in 17th.