Looking for longshots at the Big Machine Hand Sanitizer 400

It was a long, demanding weekend for the NASCAR drivers at Pocono. Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin, who each tallied a win and a runner-up result during the Saturday/Sunday doubleheader, are probably the only two drivers feeling upbeat heading into Indianapolis Motor Speedway this Sunday, July 5 for the Big Machine Hand Sanitizer 400 (4:00 p.m., NBC).

Harvick is the race favorite at +350, with Kyle Busch close behind at +425 and Hamlin at +450. It’s a little difficult to find longshots to have faith in this weekend – Harvick and Busch have combined to lead over half the laps run at "The Brickyard" since 2017 – but here are our value selections for Sunday’s event.

Brad Keselowski (+900)

Brad Keselowski suffered a crash in his most recent trip to Indianapolis, but prior to that he found Victory Lane in 2018 and placed second in 2017. The No. 2 Ford driver had led 64 laps over his previous four visits to "The Brickyard."

Keselowski has been fairly consistent this year, placing in the Top 10 in 10 events – only Harvick can claim more Top 10 results (12). Being in a Team Penske Ford seems to be an advantage, as Penske has won at Indy 25 times (tied with Michigan for its best track), while Ford has claimed victory in eight of the first 15 NASCAR races in 2020. Keselowski will roll off the grid ninth by virtue of random draw.

Joey Logano (+1200)

Keselowski’s Penske-Ford teammate, Joey Logano, also has a good track record at "The Brickyard." And like Keselowski, Logano has two wins in 2020. However, he seeks his first Top 10 result since June 10 at Martinsville, hence why his current odds are on the high side.

Indy is one of Logano’s best circuits – though he’s never taken the checkered flag here, his average finishing position since switching from Toyota in 2013 is a robust 5.86 with 66 laps led. The No. 22 driver won the random draw for the pole in Sunday’s heat.

Erik Jones (+2000)

Unfortunately for Erik Jones, he wrecked out of two of his first three NASCAR races at Indianapolis. But in 2018 he ran Top 10 for most of the day and finished second behind Keselowski. Jones, starting 24th in Sunday’s Big Machine Hand Sanitizer 400, is beginning to build some momentum with two Top 5 finishes in his last three races. 

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