NASCAR Federated Auto Parts 400 betting odds and value picks

Denny Hamlin, driver of the #11 FedEx SupportSmall Toyota, during qualifying for the NASCAR Cup Series Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway. (Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images/Pool via Icon Sportswire)

The second race of the NASCAR playoffs takes place at Richmond Raceway in Saturday’s Federated Auto Parts 400 (7:30 p.m. ET, NBCSN).

Martin Truex Jr. finds himself as the +450 favorite to earn a free pass to the next round of the postseason, as he brings a five-race Top 5 streak at Richmond to this heat, including two victories from 2019. But we think we can do a bit better than those odds this week.

Let’s go looking for value as we make our selections for the Federated Auto Parts 400.

Federated Auto Parts 400 Salute to First Responders

Sat, September 11 2021, 11:30 PM

Truex Jr, Martin

+450

Hamlin, Denny

+500

Busch, Kyle

+700

Larson, Kyle

+750

Logano, Joey

+800

Keselowski, Brad

+1000

Elliott, Chase

+1100

Harvick, Kevin

+1200

Byron, William

+1600

Bell, Christopher

+1800

Denny Hamlin (+500)

After finally finding victory lane at Darlington last week for his first win of 2021, Denny Hamlin could make it two straight triumphs on Saturday night.

DRAMA ON THE FINAL LAP! @dennyhamlin holds off @KyleLarsonRacin to win! #NASCARPlayoffs pic.twitter.com/PyNyx6GyeP
— NASCAR (@NASCAR) September 6, 2021

Hamlin has led more laps at Richmond than any active driver with 1,911, well clear of Kyle Busch in second at 1,489. The No. 11 Toyota driver hasn’t won here since 2016, but has tallied six Top 5 finishes in his last eight starts at the Virginia oval.

By virtue of NASCAR’s performance-based metric, Hamlin will begin his evening in second place.

Kyle Busch (+700)

Kyle Busch had a very frustrating Southern 500 – resulting in a mediocre 15th place starting position for the Federated Auto Parts 400 – but “Rowdy” is more than capable of rebounding at Richmond.

"That's what you get when you run like $&#%."

Hear from #NASCARPlayoffs driver @KyleBusch after crashing out at @TooToughToTame. pic.twitter.com/WmFJrsdDfc
— NASCAR on NBC (@NASCARonNBC) September 6, 2021

Busch paces all active drivers in both wins (six) and average finishing position (6.81) at Richmond. He’s not failed to find the Top 10 in seven straight races over this course, including his back-to-back wins here in 2018.

Christopher Bell (+1800)

We gave out Christopher Bell in this spot at +3000 last week, and things were looking good when he rallied to finish second in Stage 2. But he had a loose wheel at the start of the final stage at Darlington, was forced to pit out of sequence, and never recovered in a 20th-place result in the Southern 500. Bell could be due for a reversal of fortune in Saturday’s Federated Auto Parts 400.

In Saturday's Cup race, Christopher Bell will run a special DeWalt paint scheme that salutes first responders. https://t.co/m1O8yOP2mP
— Jayski.com (@jayski) September 8, 2021

The No. 20 Toyota driver was a solid fourth in the April race at Richmond, placing in both stages along the way. His only other result over this course – a 15th place finish – came in 2019, when he was still driving the No. 95 for Leavine Family Racing. But Bell was dominant at Richmond in the Xfinity Series, taking three checkered flags in a five-race span from 2017 to 2019.

He’ll roll off the grid in 10th place.

NASCAR