NASCAR Federated Auto Parts 400 odds and upset picks

The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Richmond Raceway this Saturday night for the second race of the playoffs – the Federated Auto Parts 400 (7:30, NBCSN). Kevin Harvick took the Southern 500 at Darlington on Sunday night (with an assist from Martin Truex Jr.), securing a berth into the Round of 12. He finds himself as the third-choice in the betting at +400 to make it back-to-back victories.

Martin Truex Jr. is the tepid favorite at +325, while Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Denny Hamlin is the second-choice at +350. But, as usual, we’ll go looking for some better value as we make our selections for the Federated Auto Parts 400.

Kyle Busch (+425)

These odds may not seem that high, but it’s not often you get value like this on a driver that’s far and away the winningest active driver on a given course.

Kyle Busch has six career victories at Richmond Raceway, with Hamlin and Harvick tied for second at three apiece. He trails only Hamlin in laps led on this circuit (1,659 to 1,484). Busch also owns the best average finishing position at Richmond among active Cup Series drivers (6.79).

"The Candy Man" swept both Richmond races in 2018, finished eighth in April of 2019, and was second in last September’s race en route to his second career championship. He’ll begin his evening in sixth place.

Brad Keselowski (+800)

Brad Keselowski has threatened for a win at Richmond on numerous occasions since his dominating score at the Virginia oval in September of 2014 (383 laps led) – this could be the week he finally cashes in.

Keselowski has an average finishing position of 6.83 over his last six races at Richmond, including a runner-up result in April of 2017 in which he led 110 laps. He trails only Truex (777) and Kyle Busch (466) in laps led over that span (306).

The No. 2 Ford will roll off the grid in ninth.

Joey Logano (+1000)

Joey Logano has been held without a win since the season resumed in mid-May, but it would be foolish to ignore him at these odds based on recent efforts both here and over his last few races.

Logano has a win (April 2017) and two runner-up results at Richmond over his last six starts. His average finishing position of 11.14 in 22 career races at this track is good for fourth among active drivers.

Logano has missed the Top 10 in just two of his last 10 races, and one of them was due to a wreck at Daytona. He’ll start just behind the pole-sitting Harvick on Saturday night.