NASCAR Hollywood Casino 400 betting odds and value picks

The second NASCAR Cup Series race of the Round of 8 – the Hollywood Casino 400 – takes place this Sunday afternoon at Kansas Motor Speedway (3:00 p.m. ET, NBCSN).

Kyle Larson is the heavy +225 betting favorite after punching his ticket to the Championship 4 at Texas last week. However, his 0-for-13 record over this course should have the wagering public looking elsewhere.

Here are our top three value picks for Sunday’s Hollywood Casino 400.

Chase Elliott (+800)

Chase Elliott – the defending Cup Series champion – has a good chance to secure his place in the 2021 Championship 4 with a victory this Sunday.

Elliott won at Kansas as recently as October of 2018, and has three Top 5s in five subsequent trips to this oval. He’s led 141 laps over his last six races here, and exits a respectable seventh-place finish at Texas.

The No. 9 Chevrolet driver will begin his day in fifth place, by virtue of NASCAR using its performance-based metric to set the field this week.

Martin Truex Jr. (+850)

After wrecking at Texas last week, Martin Truex Jr. could use a Top 5 in the Hollywood Casino 400 – if not a win – to get himself into the championship finale. Fortunately for Truex, he has plenty of recent success over this course to lean on.

The No. 19 Toyota driver swept the season series at Kansas in 2017, and has six Top 10s in seven subsequent visits at this oval. Only Kevin Harvick has led more laps at Kansas among active drivers than Truex (949 to 803), who will roll off the grid this Sunday in seventh place.

Brad Keselowski (+1400)

This is not a “must-win” race for Brad Keselowski, but he could certainly use a Top 5 or better as he sits in sixth place in the playoff standings, 15 points below the cutoff line.

Keselowski has been in sneaky-good form, amassing five Top 10s in the first seven NASCAR playoff races. That includes his fourth-place effort at Texas last week. The No. 2 Ford driver has led at least one lap in each of his last five races at Kansas, including his victory here in May of 2019.

Keselowski has a string of three Top 5s in a row here, placing in all six stages in that span. He’ll begin his afternoon in third place.