NASCAR Xfinity 500 betting odds and value picks

Christopher Bell, #20 Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota Camry Stanley during the Verizon 200 at the Brickyard on August 15, 2021. (Photo by Jeff Robinson/Icon Sportswire)

The penultimate race of the NASCAR Playoffs – the Xfinity 500 – is set for Sunday afternoon at Martinsville Speedway (2:00 p.m. ET, NBC).

Martin Truex Jr. is the +400 favorite to halt Cup Series Championship favorite Kyle Larson’s win streak at three races, which is not that surprising considering the No. 19 Toyota driver has won three of the last four races held at “The Paperclip.” Truex appears solid but not unbeatable, so let’s go looking for value as we make our top selections for the Xfinity 500.

Xfinity 500

Sun, October 31 2021, 6:00 PM

Truex Jr, Martin

+400

Hamlin, Denny

+600

Larson, Kyle

+600

Elliott, Chase

+650

Blaney, Ryan

+700

Busch, Kyle

+900

Keselowski, Brad

+900

Logano, Joey

+900

Byron, William

+1400

Harvick, Kevin

+2500

Denny Hamlin (+600)

In addition to Truex, Joe Gibbs Racing has a good shot at taking the checkered flag at Martinsville this Sunday with Denny Hamlin.

Despite having not won at this oval since 2015, Hamlin is the active leader in victories at Martinsville with five. He’s also led the most laps here, outpacing Kyle Busch 1,884 to 1,429.

Denny Hamlin did his Joey Logano impression in 2019 at Martinsville. pic.twitter.com/lZyefgbHgd
— FOX: NASCAR (@NASCARONFOX) October 28, 2021

Hamlin already has two triumphs during the NASCAR Playoffs, and an average finishing position of 5.13 in that eight-race span. He’ll begin his afternoon in third place, by virtue of NASCAR using their performance-based metric to set the field this week.

Chase Elliott (+650)

After running second once more to Hendrick Motorsports teammate Kyle Larson at Kansas last week, Chase Elliott could turn the tables in the Xfinity 500.

He pushed hard to catch the No. 5, but in the end, @chaseelliott brought it home second. #NASCARPlayoffs pic.twitter.com/QWGPfB6xcS
— NASCAR (@NASCAR) October 24, 2021

Elliott was plagued by some bad luck at the beginning of his Cup Series career at Martinsville, but he’s since turned things around by placing in the Top 5 in four of his last five starts here. That includes his victory at “The Paperclip” last fall that locked him into the Championship 4. Of course, he would go on to win at Phoenix in 2020 and clinch his first ever NASCAR Championship.

Perhaps we will see history repeat itself on Sunday, as Elliott rolls off the grid in second place.

Christopher Bell (+2800)

Though he’s been eliminated from the playoffs, Christopher Bell could find Victory Lane on Sunday at a nice price.

Super proud of this 20 group. Thankful to drive for such a great group of people! Glad to get a great finish at my home track #TeamToyota pic.twitter.com/SiVQm2ZUnH
— Christopher Bell (@CBellRacing) October 18, 2021

Bell has an average finish of sixth place over his last four races, and was a solid seventh at Martinsville in his Joe Gibbs Racing debut here last spring. He even led nine laps that day.

The No. 20 Toyota driver is worth a longshot look in the Xfinity 500, as he takes the initial green flag from 12th position.

NASCAR