Toyota/Save Mart 350 odds and value picks

For the first time since 2019, the NASCAR Cup Series will head to California’s Sonoma Raceway for Sunday’s Toyota/Save Mart 350 (4:00 p.m. ET, FS1).

The betting favorite for this road race is – not surprisingly – Chase Elliott (+225), who has won five of the last six Cup Series races contested on road courses. Some bad weather at the Circuit of the Americas two weeks ago secured Elliott his most recent road course triumph, as he found the front just before the race was called off with 14 laps remaining.

Elliott will be tough to beat on Sunday, but as we saw at the Daytona Road Course earlier this year, it’s not an impossible task. Let’s go looking for value as we make our top three selections for the Toyota/Save Mart 350.

Martin Truex Jr. (+400)

Martin Truex Jr. is a logical contender in Sunday’s Toyota/Save Mart 350 based on recent performances at Sonoma.

The No. 19 Toyota driver has won each of the last two Cup Series races held at this course, leading 121 out of a possible 200 laps in the process. Dating back to 2017, Truex has three road course victories and five additional top 10s in an 11-race span.

Though he has no Top 10s in his last three races overall, Truex still boasts an impressive three wins and 627 laps led on the season. He’ll begin his day in 19th by virtue of NASCAR’s performance-based metric that set the field this week. 

Kyle Busch (+700)

Truex’s Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Kyle Busch has had a rough go of it on road courses since checking in second at Sonoma in June of 2019, going five official races without posting a Top 10. But recent results suggest “The Candy Man” could threaten for the victory on Sunday.

Busch won the 35-lap Duel race at Daytona Road Course earlier this year, and led 12 out of a possible 54 laps at COTA two weeks ago before fading to 10th. A third-place finish in last Sunday’s Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway gave Busch his fourth Top 10 in a five-race span, so he’s gathering momentum.

The No. 18 Toyota will roll off the grid in fifth position.

Kevin Harvick (+1800)

While he’s yet to visit victory lane in 15 tries this year, Kevin Harvick seems to be getting disrespected by oddsmakers this Sunday.

Harvick is third among full-time drivers in average finishing position (10.9) in 2021, behind only Denny Hamlin and William Byron. He trails only Elliott in career average finishing position on road courses (12.98). Harvick has posted five straight Top 10s at Sonoma, including a victory in June of 2017.

This live longshot will start in eighth place.