Scottie Barnes' NBA Rookie of the Year odds are too good to pass up

Cade Cunningham, Jalen Green, and Jalen Suggs are the early betting favorites to take home the 2022 NBA Rookie of the Year award following a series of impressive Summer League performances. However, if you're looking for real value, look no further than Toronto Raptors wing Scottie Barnes, who is presently fifth on the oddsboard at +1200.

Does Barnes have a chance to outperform his listed odds? Let’s take a closer look.

BARNES’ Shooting Shouldn't Hold Him Back

Before we make a case for Barnes, let’s address the factors working against him. After all, the Florida State product is a longshot relative to the top three favorites, and is far behind Jalen Suggs, who was taken one slot behind him on draft night.

The reason Barnes wasn’t a consensus top pick, and why the Raptors generated some controversy with his selection, is because has a notable flaw in his game: He can’t shoot.  

That flaw may ultimately prevent him from reaching the heights of Green or Cunningham, both of whom are already steady shooters, but it’s not likely to damage Barnes as far as Rookie of the Year voting goes. 

Regular season defenses simply don’t aggressively punish teams for having non-shooters the way that playoff teams do. While Barnes’ limitations might matter a great deal later in his career if he can’t improve as a shooter, he should thrive in the Raptors defense-to-offense system for now.

In contrast to other NBA awards, rookies are not punished by voters for their shortcomings. Instead, voters are much more likely to reward a rookie’s potential than worry about their current issues. While his lack of a jumper is now the start and end of every conversation about him, Ben Simmons was a runaway Rookie of the Year award winner. Simmons is not a terrible player comp for Barnes, so as long as he produces, not having a jump shot doesn’t sink his candidacy.

Barnes' defense and versatility make him special

Putting aside his flaw, Barnes is an incredible talent. He’s a great ballhandler, passer, leader, and obscenely good defender. His physical gifts are as good as anyone in the draft save Green. Barnes was described as a basketball genius by analysts in the pre-draft process.

This combination of physical tools and incredible feel make him unusually malleable as a basketball player, which is going to play a critical role in his Rookie of the Year campaign. That's because for Rookie of the Year, opportunity is as important as talent.

The fact that Barnes can fit in so many different alignments and guard so many different positions, all but guarantees him a significant role on the Raptors from day one. He can comfortably play small forward, power forward, or even center with his massive wingspan.

Raptors forward Pascal Siakam is also recovering from a torn labrum in his shoulder, which will likely see him miss the first few weeks of the season. That means that Barnes might start to begin the year, which is important because voters often anchor their views around Rookie of the Year voting early in the season. Last year LaMelo Ball built such a big lead early in the year that even injury and sub-par play upon his return never seriously hurt his candidacy.

Something else that helped Ball win was a steady stream of highlights, and Barnes will have plenty of those. While the way he generates his offense might not be eye-popping, his defensive playmaking certainly is.

Barnes can stuff a stat sheet

Lastly, rookies are rewarded for putting up raw counting stats. And Barnes can fill up the stat sheet. His final slash line from Las Vegas was 15.5 points, 4.3 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.0 steals, and 2.0 blocks in just 27 minutes per game. And encouragingly, he got to the free-throw line nearly six times a game as well, something that should steady his production when the games count.

Barnes is being undervalued because of long-term fit concerns that shouldn’t hurt his chances to raise the Rookie of the Year trophy in 2022. At +1200 he’s drastically better value than anyone else on the board because he’s a dynamic two-way talent who is going to have plenty of opportunities to prove himself on the court.