Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: Game 5 betting odds, preview, and pick

Damian Lillard and the Portland Trail Blazers have bookended victories in the first four games against the Denver Nuggets. Can they take full control of their first round series on Tuesday?

We have the betting odds and preview you need before Game 5 tips off at 9:00 p.m. ET at Ball Arena in Denver.

Jokic is playing like an MVP

Nikola Jokic is the clear frontrunner to take home the 2021 NBA MVP award, and he's playing like it in this series too. In the first three games, Jokic averaged 36.0 points, 11.7 rebounds, and 3.7 assists per game.

However, in Game 4, Jokic only had 16 points, nine rebounds, and one assist in a loss. He also only shot 38.9% from the field, compared to 57.7% during the previous three games.

The big difference in the Nuggets' losses compared to their wins was the assist total of Jokic. He generated five assists in each of the two wins, but only one assist in each of Denver's two losses. Other players need to step up to help the "The Joker" and it starts with hitting open shots when he dishes out of double teams.

Playoff time is Dame time

Lillard is known as one of the most clutch players in the league, and that's been evident in these playoffs. In the Blazers' two wins, Lillard was a combined +58. In the two losses, he was a combined -22.

Dame is doing much more than just scoring. In the third quarter of Game 4, when the Blazers took a 27-point lead, Lillard only scored one point, but he had seven rebounds and five assists. Dame has been getting C.J. McCollum, Norm Powell, and Carmelo Anthony good looks, and it's largely been paying off.

The biggest weakness of the Nuggets is the team's ability to defend in the backcourt. The combination of Lillard, McCollum, and Powell have to make-up for the domination of Jokic in the opposing frontcourt. They have done so thus far in the series, and will need to come up big again in Game 5.

Make-or-break Game 5

Game 5 is always a crucial game in a seven-game series, but it's especially important when the series is tied 2-2. The team that wins Game 5 after the series is locked at two games apiece goes on to win the series 82% of the time.

It's worth noting that the Blazers were the last team do break this trend in the 2019 playoffs, and it happened against this same team. In the Western Conference Semifinals, the series was tied at 2-2 before the Nuggets won Game 5 at home. The Blazers came back to win both Games 6 and 7 to move on to the Western Conference Finals.

Game 5 will certainly be billed as Jokic vs. Lillard, but it will be the role players that make the biggest difference. Will Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon step up for the Nuggets? Or will Norman Powell and Carmelo Anthony make big plays for the Blazers?

This game will be a barnburner, and I expect both teams to come out with maximum intensity. In the end, look for the Nuggets to get just enough support from their supporting cast to win a high-scoring shootout at home.

NBA Pick: Nuggets -1.5, Over 226