5 NFL players bound to regress in 2020

The 2019 NFL season was filled with extraordinary performances, but some players should feel worried about their chance to repeat similar success in the next year.

Here are five players likely to regress in 2020, because of injuries, coaching changes, position battles, or age.

Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens

Lamar Jackson set the bar so high in 2019, it’s nearly impossible for him not to drop off to some degree in 2020. The second-year, dual-threat quarterback set the single-season rushing record for a QB, with 1,206 yards. He also became the only signal-caller in NFL history to pass for 3,000 yards or more and rush for 1,000 or more in one season. Jackson also led the NFL in touchdown passes (36), which is a single-season franchise record for Baltimore.

In the Ravens’ unexpected divisional-round loss to the Tennessee Titans, Jackson struggled to carry his team, as injured running back Mark Ingram saw limited carries and threw off the dynamic of the offense. Opposing defenses will use that playoff contest as a blueprint to game plan in the offseason and should be more equipped to stop Jackson.

Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans

Another player who enjoyed a record year is Derrick Henry. The bruiser almost single-handedly took down the New England Patriots and Baltimore Ravens in the playoffs and was the first player to run for more than 180 yards in three consecutive games.

Henry finished the regular season with the most rushing yards (1,540) and is rightfully demanding a massive payday as a free agent.

If the Titans pay up, they’ll have to sacrifice elsewhere and could risk losing valuable pieces, like free agent right tackle Jack Conklin. That could lead to a drop in Henry’s production, but his past usage also creates a cause for concern.

According to ESPN Stats and Info, in a 2014 study, every running back who played at least four seasons in the NFL and carried the ball a minimum 75 times per season since 2001, peaked at the age of 27. Henry, 26, has registered at least 110 attempts per season since his rookie year. He has only missed two games in four years, but the wear and tear is expected to catch up to him. 

If you watched him last year, the Heisman Trophy winner seemed unstoppable. The story may be different in 2020.

Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers

Veteran wideout Keenan Allen ranked sixth in receiving yards (1,199) in 2019 and was the Chargers’ top pass catcher for the third straight year.

This coming season, however, the soon-to-be 28-year-old must learn to mesh with a new quarterback for the first time in his pro career.

Former Chargers QB Philip Rivers agreed to part ways with Los Angeles after 16 seasons and is searching for a new franchise in 2020. That will leave Allen and his teammates to jell with a free-agent pickup or a young draft pick in the offseason.

The variable at quarterback could result in a down year for Allen. Players at his position tend to peak around 26 or 27, too, so Father Time could begin to play a factor.   

Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns

Should restricted free agent Kareem Hunt return to Cleveland in 2020, Nick Chubb will have to share the rock and may see his numbers slip. The second-year running back experienced a breakout season and emerged as the lead back in Cleveland, with 1,494 rushing yards in 2019, the second most in the league.

Hunt played just eight games for Cleveland, as he sat out on suspension during the first half of the season. Now that he’s potentially back in the fold for the full year, he could split carries with Chubb and cause the Georgia product’s stats to drop in 2020.  

With former Minnesota Vikings offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski in as the new Browns head coach, roles could change on offense, and Hunt and Chubb could play a more equal part in the upcoming season.

Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots

The most talked about free agent of 2020 is six-time Super Bowl champion Tom Brady. After 20 seasons in New England, the 42-year-old’s future is uncertain, and many expect him to wear a new uniform this year.

Brady is reportedly asking for $25 million per year, but a proper payday for the G.O.A.T. would hinder the Patriots’ ability to boost their offense. Last season New England’s receiving corps battled through injuries and inexperience, which left Brady visibly frustrated on the field.

If Brady stays in New England, the situation should only get worse, as the Patriots will have less to spend after conceding to Brady’s salary demands.

If he leaves for another team, he’ll need to find a roster with a solid offensive line and plenty of talented receivers to prop him up. Without that aid Brady’s numbers will take a nosedive, considering they’ve already declined over the past three years.  

From 2016 to 2019, his completion percentage went from 67.4% to 60.8%. His number of passing touchdowns also diminished steadily from 2017 to 2019 (32 to 24), while he tossed at least eight interceptions in each of those three seasons. His quarterback rating plummeted from 112.2 to 102.8, then 97.7 to 88.0 from 2016 to 2019.

The trends don’t bode well for Brady, and unless he can surround himself with superb weapons, he might find retirement the most viable option in 2021.  

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