Baltimore Ravens vs. Miami Dolphins: The best Lamar Jackson props for TNF

The Baltimore Ravens were involved in a thrilling 34-31 overtime win against the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday and now travel to Miami on a short week to face the 2-7 Dolphins.

Lamar Jackson inspired the Ravens to come from two touchdowns behind early in the third quarter to knock off Minnesota, but the star QB should have a far easier time against Miami’s dodgy defense.

Baltimore is a 7.5-point favorite, and the Over/Under currently sits at 46.5. The Ravens have put up more than 30 points in three of their last four games, so it would be no surprise if Jackson was to light up Thursday Night Football.

Over/Under 232.5 Passing Yards

Jackson would’ve beaten this line in seven of his eight games this season, and the MVP candidate is a good bet to throw Over once again, despite traveling to Miami on a short week.

He’s averaging 276.1 yards per game (ranked 10th in the NFL), and the Ravens are averaging 12.8 yards per catch — the highest average in the league.

The beauty here lies in the matchup against a struggling Miami defense. The Dolphins give up an average of 39.7 passing attempts per game (fourth highest in the NFL), and only Washington concedes more passing yards to opposing quarterbacks.

The Dolphins have had some success in recent weeks, holding Tyrod Taylor to 240 passing yards last week and an out-of-sorts Josh Allen to 249 yards in Week 8. But before that, they had been regularly torched.

Jackson will have happy Miami memories. He threw just 20 attempts against Miami in Week 1 in 2019, but incredibly, 17 of those passes were caught for 324 yards and five touchdowns.

Based on quarterback rating, that was Jackson’s best game in his NFL career, and even if he doesn’t meet those lofty heights, he should beat this line.

Pick: Over 232.5 Passing Yards (-113)

Over/Under 64.5 Rushing Yards

Not only is Jackson throwing more than ever before, but he’s also averaging 12.1 rushing attempts per game this season, which is a career high.

That translates to an average of 75 yards per game, and he’s just coming off the back of his second 100-plus rushing performance of the season, as he ripped through the Vikings for 120 yards.

It’s hard to compare LJ to other rushing QBs because, simply put, no QB has legs like Lamar. In fact, only six players in the entire league average more rushing yards per game, and you have to go all the way down to 54.9 yards to find the next QB, which is Jalen Hurts.

The Dolphins statistically only give up 15.6 rushing yards per game to QBs this season, but six of the eight quarterbacks they have faced average less than 18 yards per game for the season. There’s no comparison to Jackson.

Josh Allen ran for 55 yards from eight carries against the Dolphins in Week 8, and a similar performance from a better runner, like Jackson, will comfortably get over the line.

Jackson has had 12 or more carries in three of the Ravens’ last four games, and in his 24 NFL games in which he has had at least 12 carries, he has run for over 64 yards in 75% of them.

Pick: Over 64.5 Rushing yards (-112)

Over/Under 27.5 Passing Attempts

Jackson is throwing more than he ever has in his career so far, chucking the ball on average 33 times per game. He would’ve beaten this line in six of the eight games this season, and in the two the Under would’ve clicked, he threw 26 times (Week 2) and 27 times (Week 6).

Teams are not afraid to throw against the Dolphins, and given their problems against the pass, why would you!

Opposing quarterbacks average 39.9 pass attempts against the Dolphins, with only the Bucs, Titans, and Seahawks facing more passes per game.

Jackson should get plenty of joy through the air on TNF and should have no problem connecting with the array of weapons at his disposal.

This season, he has already thrown 43 times against the Colts (Week 5) and 41 times against the Vikings (Week 8), two of the three highest attempts in his NFL career.

Pick: Over 27.5 Passing Attempts (-122)