Bills vs. Buccaneers: NFL Week 14 betting odds, preview, and pick

An intriguing interconference clash awaits fans and bettors at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday afternoon, as the Buffalo Bills visit the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The Bills will look to right the ship after losing their grip on the AFC East to the New England Patriots on Monday night. Meanwhile, the Bucs still have their sights on top-seed honors in the NFC following a facile win over the Atlanta Falcons.

Let’s dig into this matchup and see where bettors should be placing their money.

Buffalo Bills (7-5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-3), 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS

When the Bills have the ball

Josh Allen had a legitimate excuse for his subpar Week 13 effort (15-for-30, 145 yards, one touchdown), and it wasn’t just that the Pats’ defense is dynamite. He was battling winds so extreme, Bill Belichick only allowed New England quarterback Mac Jones to throw three passes all game long.

But Allen has been up-and-down under center since the calendar flipped to November. In the four games preceding Monday’s tilt, he had an 8-7 touchdown-interception ratio.

The Wyoming product has also taken more hits of late, suffering 11 sacks in his last five games. He was dropped just eight times over his first seven contests, and is unlikely to get much relief against Tampa’s pass rushers, who are tied for fourth in the NFL with 32 sacks.

The Bucs’ top-ranked rushing defense (84.3 yards per game) should keep Devin Singletary in check, forcing Allen to go through the air to Stefon Diggs and company with regularity. Fortunately for Buffalo, Tampa gives up their fair share of passing yards per game (248.4, 20th). 

When the Buccaneers have the ball

Tom Brady leads the NFL in both passing yards (3,771) and passing touchdowns (34), and is fresh off a dismantling of the Falcons in Week 13, in which he carved up their defense for 368 yards and four scores on 38-for-51 passing.

The Bills’ defense is made of much stronger stuff than Atlanta though. Bearing in mind that the numbers are slightly skewed by the Patriots’ near-complete abandonment of the passing game last Monday, Buffalo is tops in the NFL in opponent passing yards per game (165.3). They also pace all of football in opponent passer rating (62.9).

Tampa shouldn’t force running back Leonard Fournette (4.4 yards per carry on 152 attempts) to be a hero, but Brady and the passing game can’t win this one alone.

Bills vs. Buccaneers injury report

Bills and Buccaneers betting trends

• The Bills are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss
• The Bills are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games
• The Buccaneers are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games
• The Buccaneers are 12-3-2 ATS in their last 17 games played in December
• The Under is 19-7 in the Bills’ last 26 games following a straight-up loss
• The Under is 5-0 in the Buccaneers’ last five outdoor games

The verdict

The Bills’ defense should keep Brady from having another field day through the air, but Allen’s play has been too inconsistent of late to bank on Buffalo beating the Bucs outright. However, taking the Bills with the points in what might be a lower-scoring game than oddsmakers are expecting looks like the right move.

Score prediction: Buccaneers 24, Bills 23

NFL pick: Bills +3.5, Under 52.5

Bills vs. Buccaneers pick powered by The Quant Edge

Our predictive engine is calling for the Buccaneers to win and cover the spread, and the game to go Over the projected total.