Bills vs. Chiefs: AFC Championship Game X-factors

The Buffalo Bills will square off with the Kansas City Chiefs in the 2021 AFC Championship Game on Sunday, with a spot in Super Bowl LV on the line.

The game features high-powered offenses, and many fans are looking forward to this rematch of a Week 6 contest.

Let’s take a look at the four X-factors that will determine the outcome of Sunday’s game.

Patrick Mahomes’ health

The status of Patrick Mahomes is the first, second, and third biggest story heading into the AFC Championship Game.

Nothing will impact the action more than whether Mahomes is cleared to play, or whether backup Chad Henne will be handed the keys to the Lamborghini. A hit during the third quarter against Cleveland last week put Mahomes in the NFL's concussion protocol and put his eligibility to play in the AFC title game in question.

However, there has been reporting that indicates the injury and symptoms may have been related to a nerve issue in the quarterback's neck, rather than a concussion.

Nearly everyone, including sports books, is expecting he will be cleared. However, Henne will be ready to go, and Kansas City head coach Andy Reid showed at the end of last week's game that he has full confidence in the backup quarterback (more on that later).

Mahomes is the first quarterback in more than 70 years to win 24 of his first 25 starts in the NFL, and he is arguably the best quarterback in the NFL.

Without Mahomes, Kansas City would see a significant drop-off on offense, and could see its season come to an end.

The Bills’ defensive line

No matter which quarterback starts in red Sunday, the Bills need to get better performance from their defensive line.

While its play has improved as the season has gone along, Buffalo had the sixth-most missed tackles on the season and has a hurry rate of less than 8%. In their earlier meeting with Kansas City, the Bills allowed 245 rushing yards and recorded just one sack. Last week, against a fairly one-dimensional Ravens team, the Bills allowed nearly five yards per carry, and four different players recorded a carry of more than 12 yards, but they did a great job to pressure quarterback Lamar Jackson.

Buffalo will not be able to blitz Kansas City the way it would against most teams. While the Bills secondary is playing exceptionally well, there are too many weapons in the Kansas City passing game. Asking the secondary to cover them all one-on-one is very risky.

If Buffalo can get pressure on the quarterback and keep him in the pocket, it will make things easier for the pass defense.

The return of Clyde Edwards-Helaire

A large portion of the rushing yardage Kansas City picked up in its first meeting with Buffalo came from rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who gained 161 yards on a season-high 26 carries. He only surpassed 100 yards in a game twice this season, but he has been out the last month with hip and ankle issues and will return fresh for this weekend’s game.

Darrel Williams filled in just fine against the Browns, but Edwards-Helaire provides more versatility in the running and passing game.

Buffalo held Mahomes to his lowest passing total of the season in their first meeting, so finding yards on the ground will help take the pressure off him (or Henne) and perhaps force Buffalo to commit more players into the box, which will open opportunities downfield.

As Buffalo coach Sean McDermott put it after the loss, it was a “pick your poison” situation the Chiefs put the Bills in, and it is one they might have to endure again Sunday.

The mentor vs. the mentee

Reid will look to improve on his 2-5 record in conference championships (he is 1-1 as head coach of the Chiefs). He is the only head coach in NFL history to host three straight conference championship games,  a feat he will accomplish for the second time, with a different team, when the Chiefs take the field Sunday.

Reid also has a winning record against his former assistants, and McDermott worked with Reid for 12 years in Philadelphia.

McDermott has often stated that Reid is a mentor. Will McDermott be able to find a way to outwit the man who taught him so much, or will Reid show his mentee that he still has much to learn? This chess match will decide who punches their ticket to Super Bowl LV.