Bills vs. Chiefs: NFL Divisional Round betting odds, preview, and pick

In a rematch of the 2021 AFC Championship Game, the Buffalo Bills will meet the Kansas City Chiefs in the 2022 Divisional Round at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday evening. The Chiefs won that previous playoff meeting, 38-24, but the Bills were able to avenge that defeat in Week 5 of this season – also in Kansas City – 38-20.

The Chiefs are nominal two-point favorites in this “grudge match,” with the total set at a sky-high 54.5 points. Let’s dive into the matchup to determine what side bettors should be on.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs, 6:30 p.m. ET, CBS

Both quarterbacks are dialed in…

Two of the most pass-heavy attacks in football collide in this one, and both Bills quarterback Josh Allen and Chiefs signal caller Patrick Mahomes are in good form at present.

Allen threw for 308 yards and five touchdowns in a 47-17 rout of the New England Patriots in the Wild Card round. Excluding his three-interception effort against the Atlanta Falcons in less-than-ideal weather on Jan. 2, Allen has 13 touchdowns and only one pick in his last four outings.

Not to be outdone, Mahomes went for 404 yards and five touchdowns in dominant 42-21 victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers last Sunday. The former MVP has thrown for no fewer than 258 yards in each of his last six contests, producing a 17-2 touchdown-interception ratio in that stretch.

…but the defenses are different from Week 5

When Buffalo beat Kansas City earlier this season, the defensive personnel on both sides was very different than what bettors will see this Sunday.

The Chiefs were without intimidating defensive tackle Chris Jones in that tilt, as well as important secondary players Charvarius Ward and Juan Thornhill. Linebacker Melvin Ingram III was still a member of the Steelers when K.C. lined up against Allen and company in Week 5.

As for the Bills, their stoppers have not been the same since All-Pro cornerback Tre’Davious White was lost for the season with a torn ACL. It’s easy to envision Mahomes taking advantage of this scenario with weapons like wide-out Tyreek Hill in his arsenal.

Bills vs. Chiefs injury report

Bills and Chiefs betting trends

• The Bills are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog
• The Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games
• The road team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings between these two clubs
• The Over is 9-2-1 in the Bills’ last 12 outdoor games
• The Over is 6-0 in the Chiefs’ last six games overall

The verdict

A lot has changed since these teams met in Week 5. Expect the Chiefs to get their revenge on the Bills and move on to the AFC Championship Game.

Score prediction: Chiefs 31, Bills 20

NFL pick: Chiefs -2

Bills vs. Chiefs pick powered by The Quant Edge

Our predictive engine is calling for the Chiefs to win and cover the spread.