Bills vs. Patriots: NFL Week 16 betting odds, preview, and pick

The Buffalo Bills will look to avenge their Week 13 loss to the New England Patriots when these AFC East rivals square off once again on Sunday afternoon.

Since dropping that previous contest by just four points, the Bills have gone 1-1, with the loss coming in overtime to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a Week 14 thriller. The Patriots have played just one game since then, a 27-17 defeat to the Indianapolis Colts that snapped their seven-game winning streak.

Let’s dive into this Week 16 showdown at Gillette Stadium and give out our best bet.

Buffalo Bills (8-6) at New England Patriots (9-5), 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS

When the Bills have the ball

Bills quarterback Josh Allen marched into fourth place in passing touchdowns last week with a three-score effort against the Carolina Panthers. However, inaccuracy dogged him once more (55.9% completion rate), and he threw his 12th interception of the season in that tilt.

Allen was a modest 15-for-30 through the air when these teams faced off in Buffalo on Dec. 6. He didn’t throw any picks that day, but he may have trouble avoiding that fate the second time around against New England’s stoppers, who are second in the league in interceptions (20).

Allen will also have to fight the elements once more, with rain and cold temps being called for in this one. The trick will be for the Bills to establish the run, though they’ve had just one 100-yard rusher all season, and it was Allen in Week 14 (109 yards). For what it’s worth, lead halfback Devin Singletary set a season-high with 86 yards on 22 carries against the Panthers last week.

He’ll take on a Pats defense that’s ninth-worst in the NFL in stopping the run (122.4 yards allowed per game).

When the Patriots have the ball

The safest bet of the NFL season is that Mac Jones will throw more passes in this game than he did against the Bills in Week 13, when he slinged it just three times. But Jones underwhelmed against the Colts when last seen (26-for-45, 299 yards, two touchdowns, two interceptions), and takes on the league’s top-ranked pass defense (175.6 yards allowed per game) here.

Bettors should expect the Patriots to give the Bills another steady dose of Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson, who combined for 189 yards when these teams clashed on Dec. 6. The Bills are 16th in stopping the run (112.4 yards allowed per game) in 2021.

Bills vs. Patriots injury report

Bills and Patriots betting trends

• The Bills are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog
• The Patriots are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall
• The road team is 18-6-2 ATS in the last 26 meetings between these two teams
• The Over is 7-0 in the Bills’ last seven games as an underdog
• The Under is 15-7 in the Patriots’ last 22 games overall

The verdict

Considering what transpired between these two teams just a few weeks ago, Under bettors appear to have a significant edge. Sunday’s conditions, combined with two elite pass defenses, should not allow for a shootout.

Score prediction: Bills 20, Patriots 17

NFL pick: Under 43.5

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Bills vs. Patriots pick powered by The Quant Edge

Our predictive engine is calling for the Bills to win and cover the spread, and the game to go Over the projected total.