The New Orleans Saints will host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday with a lot on the line in the NFC South.

Let's examine this divisional matchup, beginning with the latest betting odds.

44 is the new 24

Tom Brady may be 44 years old, but he is playing at a level better than he has ever played. Through seven games in 2021, he is averaging 325.0 passing yards per game. This is only two yards per game less than his best yardage season ever (2011), and a full 60.5 yards better than his career average.

Brady also has 21 passing touchdowns to just three interceptions. At this rate, he is projected to finish the season with 5,525 yards, 51 touchdowns, and seven picks. Those are near record numbers, let alone basic MVP numbers. The man truly is ageless.

After getting swept in the regular season last year, you know Brady will want to come out with a big performance against the Saints. Sean Payton figured out how to keep Brady from putting up big numbers last year, but Brady did not come back for another season without putting in the work to improve.

The new age of Saints football

For years under Drew Brees, the Saints were all about putting points on the board and playing aggressive defense to try and force turnovers. Now under Jameis Winston, the Saints have shifted to a shutdown style defense and a game management offense with the occasional big play.

Winston has been surprisingly efficient this season with only three interceptions through six games. Payton has changed the offense to be more run-heavy and checkdown-dependent to get superstar Alvin Kamara more involved, and it's paid off.

The Saints are +4 in turnover margin and rank third in the league in points allowed. Winston has a quarterback rating of 102.4 and Kamara is averaging 110.0 total yards per game. They will need to continue this style of play against the Bucs to pull off the upset this week.

Saints and Buccaneers betting trends

• The Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. NFC South opponents
• The Buccaneers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as a road favorite
• The Buccaneers are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings
• The road team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings
• The Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss
• The Under is 6-0 in Saints' last six games vs. NFC South opponents

Jameis revenge game

Winston will get his first real opportunity to get revenge against his old team on Sunday. He played 10 snaps in the fourth quarter of a blowout victory in Tampa last season, but this time he is the starting quarterback. You know he wants to get a win over the team that released him.

The Saints will manipulate the game to their style as they rank second in the league in passing touchdowns allowed and opposing quarterback rating. They will also make sure Kamara is heavily involved on offense and take the pressure off Winston.

This game is my upset pick of the week, as Payton and the Saints just seem to have Brady’s number (at least in the regular season). The Saints will keep this one low scoring and will pull off a big home win over their division foe.

Score prediction: Saints 20, Buccaneers 17

NFL Week 8 picks: Saints +5, Under 50

Buccaneers vs. Saints pick powered by The Quant Edge

Our predictive engine is calling for the Bucs to win outright.