Colts favored to win AFC South, but Titans lurk close behind

With new quarterback Carson Wentz in command of the offense, the Indianapolis Colts are favored to win their first AFC South title since 2014.

The longtime Philadelphia Eagles signal caller was traded to Indy in the offseason and will reunite with his former offensive coordinator, Frank Reich, who will embark on his fourth season as the Colts head coach.

In 2020, Reich enjoyed his best season in Indianapolis, as the Colts and one-year quarterback signing Philip Rivers went 11-5 and lost by a field goal to the Buffalo Bills in the Wild Card Round.

The Colts ranked 10th in offensive yards per game (378.1), compared to 25th in 2019, and were ninth in points per game (28.2), under the guidance of offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni.

In 2021, former quarterbacks coach Marcus Brady will replace Sirianni, who accepted the head coaching job in Philadelphia.

On defense, the Colts also showed progress under fourth-year defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus. After it ranked 16th in yards allowed in 2019, Indianapolis jumped to eighth in the league in that category (332.1 yards per game) and surrendered the 10th-most points (22.6).

The Colts were mostly quiet in free agency but added Kansas City Chiefs veteran left tackle Eric Fisher, who tore his Achilles tendon in the 2020 AFC Championship Game and may not be cleared to start in the season opener.

Even if Fisher is sidelined for the beginning of the season, the Colts will still own one of the best offensive lines in the league.

The biggest question mark ahead of 2021 is whether Wentz can jell with his new roster, stay upright for a full season, and help Indy take another step forward by tapping into his MVP-level form from earlier in his career.

While the Reich-Wentz reunion might translate to success for the Colts, division rival Tennessee also made a blockbuster trade this offseason that could keep the team at the top of the division for the second straight season.

Julio Jones makes Tennessee more dangerous

Seven-time Pro Bowl receiver Julio Jones landed with the Titans via trade in June and will line up alongside star receiver A.J. Brown (1,075 yards, 11 touchdowns in 2020).

That dynamic, combined with 2,000-yard rusher Derrick Henry in the backfield, should make Tennessee's offense all the more lethal.

The Titans defense, on the other hand, could use a leg up.

In 2020, the group ranked in the bottom five in yards allowed per game and ninth to last in points surrendered.

The one-year Jadeveon Clowney experiment failed miserably, as the Pro Bowl defensive end was placed on injured reserve in November, and the team finished the year ranked 31st in pass rushing.

In free agency, Tennessee acquired Pittsburgh Steelers linebacker Bud Dupree and Colts defensive end Denico Autry, and will pay a combined $23.7 million per year for their services.

The unit still has a long way to go to meet the performance of the Titans' offense, which ranked third in offensive yards per game (396.4) and fourth in points per game (30.7) in 2020. 

Titans draw most difficult schedule in AFC South

The Titans need to make strides on defense this season, particularly with the 17-game schedule they drew for 2021.

Based on each team's win-loss record in 2020, Tennessee will play the 13th most difficult schedule in the league and will face top offenses like Kansas City in Week 7, the Los Angeles Rams in Week 9, and San Francisco in Week 16.

Last season, the Titans drew the 20th most difficult schedule, finished with an 11-5 record, and won the AFC South title via tiebreaker.

This season, the Over/Under on Tennessee's win total is 9.5 (-110), while Indianapolis’ Over/Under is 10.

Indy’s toughest games include road dates at Baltimore, San Francisco, and Buffalo, as well as home matchups against the Rams, the reigning Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and the New England Patriots.

As for the other half of the AFC South, the Jacksonville Jaguars are in the first year of a rebuild, with first-year NFL coach Urban Meyer and 2021 No. 1 overall draft pick Trevor Lawrence. The Houston Texans, who won the division in four of the past six seasons, closed out the Bill O’Brien era when they fired the seven-year coach mid-season in 2020 and hired Ravens assistant head coach David Culley in the offseason.

The Texans finished with a 4-12 record last season, while the Jags bottomed out at 1-15.

The upcoming season should look a lot like 2020 in the AFC South, as this division should once again come down to a head-to-head battle between Indianapolis and Tennessee that may ultimately be decided in the final week of the season.