Dolphins vs. Saints: MNF Week 16 betting odds, preview, and pick

Two teams fighting to make the playoffs in their respective conferences will face off at Caesars Superdome on Monday night as the Miami Dolphins visit the New Orleans Saints.

The Dolphins are one of the NFL’s hottest teams, having won each of their last six games. However, only one of the teams they beat in that span had a winning record (Baltimore Ravens).

Meanwhile, the Saints have shaken off a five-game losing streak with back-to-back victories, including a shocking 9-0 shutout of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last time out. But due to injuries and COVID protocols, their quarterback situation is becoming more dire by the day. Rookie Ian Book gets the nod here, with Blake Bortles signed off the street to be his backup.

Let’s dive into this Monday night matchup and see who will prevail in the Week 16 finale.

Miami Dolphins (7-7) at New Orleans Saints (7-7), 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN

Can Tua do enough?

Tua Tagovailoa headmans a Miami offense that’s a modest 22nd by points per game in 2021 (20.4). However, the Dolphins have topped 30 points in two of their last three games, and Tagovailoa has played some of his best football of the year in that span.

The Alabama product was instrumental in the Fins’ season-high 33-point performance against the Carolina Panthers three weeks ago, completing 27 of 31 passes (87.1%) for 230 yards and a touchdown.

After missing wide-out Jaylen Waddle last week due to COVID protocols, he and Tagovailoa will be reunited in this one. Waddle has become a vital part of the Miami passing game, reeling in eight or more receptions in four of his last five contests.

Expect Saints aerial attack to be grounded

New Orleans was desperate enough to reach out to Drew Brees and Philip Rivers this week to try and lure the retired signal callers back, which speaks to a very low level of confidence in their current quarterback situation.

Book, a fourth-round pick in this year’s draft out of Notre Dame, will likely be handled with kid gloves by head coach Sean Payton. The leash could also be a short one with NFL veteran Bortles lying in wait. Book will take on a tenacious Miami defense that’s 10th in sacks this season (37), and eighth in opponent passer rating (85.4).

Bettors should expect Alvin Kamara to receive plenty of touches, but the Dolphins’ seventh-ranked run stoppers (103.7 yards allowed per game) should be ready for him.

Dolphins vs. Saints injury report

Dolphins and Saints betting trends

• The Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games in December
• The Saints are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games as an underdog
• The Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games
• The Under is 36-16 in the Dolphins’ last 52 games played indoors
• The Under is 12-4 in the Saints’ last 16 games following a straight-up win

The verdict

The Saints’ offense is likely to be stunted by the Dolphins’ defense in this one. Lay the points with Miami in what might be an ugly affair.

Score prediction: Dolphins 20, Saints 13

NFL pick: Dolphins -2.5

Dolphins vs. Saints pick powered by The Quant Edge

Our predictive engine is calling for the Saints to win and cover the spread, and the game to go Over the projected total.