NFL SNF pick: Packers put 3-game streak on the line against Chiefs

The most significant storyline going into Sunday night’s showdown between the Packers and Chiefs is the status of Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who dislocated his kneecap in the second quarter of last week’s victory over the Broncos and did not return.

The initial diagnosis had him missing anywhere from three to six weeks, but he was back at practice Wednesday on a limited basis. Based on the line set for this affair, oddsmakers are assuming Mahomes will not suit up, which means journeyman Matt Moore will be under center. With Andy Reid’s offense potentially limited and the Packers’ tendency to play poorly following big wins, the pieces are in place for the Under to cash at Arrowhead Stadium.

Don't expect much from Moore

Moore was a modest 10-of-19 for 117 yards through the air in relief of Mahomes last week, which was his first NFL game action since Week 12 of 2017. The Packers have had a whole week to prepare for him, so don’t expect any aerial heroics from Moore.

The Chiefs will have to hope 31-year-old tailback LeSean McCoy, who is averaging just 46 yards per game on the ground this year, can step up. Green Bay is just 24th in rushing yards allowed per game (128.9), but the Packers remain capable of preventing big plays and have allowed only four rushes of 20 or more yards this season.

Rodgers sizzled in last start

Aaron Rodgers is fresh off the first perfect passer rating (158.3) of his career, as he went 25-for-31, with 429 yards and five touchdowns, against the Raiders. However, he and the Packers tend to come back down to earth following huge performances.

The Under is 5-1 in Green Bay’s last six games after scoring more than 30 points the game before. Kansas City’s defense has allowed just more than 328 yards per contest over their last 11 home games, a figure that would be good for eighth overall this year. The Under is 17-8 in the Chiefs’ last 25 home games against teams with winning road records.

NFL free play: Under

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