NFL Week 15: Chiefs vs. Saints odds, preview, and pick

A potential Super Bowl preview will take place at Mercedes-Benz Superdome this Sunday (4:25 p.m. ET, CBS) as the Kansas City Chiefs (12-1) visit the New Orleans Saints (10-3). Will Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ aerial assault overwhelm the Saints, or will the New Orleans defense hold and allow Taysom Hill and the Saints’ crafty rush attack to win the day? Here’s our wagering preview.

Chiefs are winning, but not by much

Since blowing out the hapless New York Jets in Week 8, the Chiefs’ average margin of victory in their last five games is 4.2 points. Not surprisingly, they’ve failed to cover in each of those five contests.

Mahomes has been mostly MVP-quality during Kansas City’s close-call streak, but a three-interception game against the Miami Dolphins last Sunday raises an eyebrow. His defense has left plenty to be desired over the last five tilts, allowing an average of 25.8 points.

Saints still look strong despite Week 14 loss

The Saints had a nine-game win streak (6-3 against the spread) snapped by the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field last Sunday. However, if kicker Wil Lutz had made two ordinary field goals, a 24-21 defeat could have turned into a 27-24 victory.

Perhaps returning home to the Superdome will cure what ails Lutz. New Orleans can ill afford to have their kicker go haywire in a game where every point matters.

Chiefs’ passing game may hit a snag

It’s no secret that Kansas City’s offense runs first and foremost through Mahomes and the passing game – this is the top-ranked aerial assault in the league. However, the Saints’ pass stoppers are no slouches, allowing the fourth-fewest passing yards per game in football.

New Orleans has allowed fewer than 200 yards passing in four of their last six games – no small feat in today’s NFL.

Saints’ run game should excel

Since Drew Brees went down with a rib injury, the Saints have relied primarily on their seventh-ranked rushing game to move the chains on offense. Fortunately for them, the Chiefs bring their 26th-ranked run stoppers into town for this matchup.

Hill and Alvin Kamara should run wild throughout and play “keep away” from Mahomes and company.

Trends say take the underdog

Several strong trends suggest the Saints will hand the Chiefs their sixth straight loss against the spread on Sunday.

New Orleans has covered in 21 of its last 27 games as underdogs, including a 6-1 mark in their last seven games as home underdogs.

Sean Payton’s squad has identical 4-1 marks against the spread in its last five games played in December, as well as its last five games following a straight-up defeat.

Score prediction: Saints 27, Chiefs 26

NFL Pick: Saints +4

Wager on all NFL Week 15 action on BetAmerica!