NFL Week 7: Chiefs vs. Broncos odds, pick & prediction

To say the Denver Broncos have struggled recently against their division rival, the Kansas City Chiefs, would be an understatement. In 2019 they were outscored 53-9 in two games. The Chiefs have won nine straight games, and are 6-0 ATS in their last six trips to Denver. This is not a good trend for Broncos fans or supporters, but past results don’t necessarily point to future outcomes.

Let’s break down Chiefs vs. Broncos and make a prediction for Sunday's Week 7 action from the Mile High City.

Lock looked sharp against New England

The Chiefs are 5-1 SU on the year and 4-2 ATS. They enter this matchup as 9.5-point favorites against the Broncos, who are 2-3 SU, but a pleasant 4-1 ATS. The Broncos have suffered extensive injury woes this year, but starting quarterback Drew Lock is 2-0 ATS after playing in the first and most recent games of the year. Lock is most certainly a better option for Denver, and his return should be welcomed as he led them to six scoring drives last week against a tough New England defense.

Reinforcements are on the way for Denver

The rest of the Broncos roster has a lot of question marks. Starters Noah Fant, K.J. Hamler, and A.J. Bouye are all possible returnees from the injury report, but their status could be a gametime decision.

DeMarcus Walker and Dre’Mont Jones are likely to return after missing the last three games. Melvin Gordon also looks to return after sitting out last game due to illness. If Fant and/or Hamler are able to return, it will give Lock another potent weapon that will be necessary to keep up with the electric Chiefs offense.

Injury woes are not an issue for the Chiefs

The Chiefs, meanwhile, are a bit healthier, with the most notable injury being that of right tackle Mitchell Schwartz. Schwartz was pulled from Monday’s game against the Bills due to back problems, but should be ready to go against the Broncos. The Chiefs continue to miss wideout Sammy Watkins, but are fortunate to have a number of other weapons to rely on while he continues his long road back from hamstring injury.

Chiefs are relying more on their running game in 2020

In 2019, the Chiefs set the NFL on fire with their explosive offense as star quarterback Patrick Mahomes, the 2018 league MVP, tossed the ball all over the field. For the season, they threw the ball 61.4% of the time. Through six games of 2020, however, the Chiefs have slowed things down, opting to pass the ball just 55.9% of the time.

While they certainly showed success doing so in their most recent contest against the Bills, advanced analytics tells us that passing in general offers a higher likelihood to score for most teams than does rushing. This is assuredly the case with Mahomes and company, as Mahomes’ floor is still well above league average. The Chiefs still do a good job at passing in obvious situations, but they should be relying more on their star.

Denver's defense has been disruptive

The Broncos’ success on defense against the Patriots could be viewed as an opportunistic capitalization of a sliding offense, but the truth is under Vic Fangio they are playing good football all year with defensive lineman Bradley Chubb disrupting offenses. They are eighth in the NFL in pass yards allowed per attempt, and Chubb has 3.5 sacks to go along with six tackles for loss.

The Broncos will need disruptive plays that set the Chiefs back and hope the defense bends but doesn’t break. The Broncos have seen no success against the Chiefs in recent years, and will presumably lose this weekend as well, but this young roster is showing flashes of real talent and with the Chiefs traveling on a short week from Buffalo to Denver, I like the Broncos to keep things ugly and competitive.

Score prediction: Chiefs 30, Broncos 23

NFL pick: Broncos +9.5

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