NFL Week 1 Betting Guide

Minnesota’s defense did their job as always, allowing just 21.3 points against(9th) and just 309.7 yards allowed (3rd). With a rejuvenated offense, the Vikings could be a threat in a wide-open NFC North. The oddsmakers are treating them in Week 1 as if they’re already world beaters.

Toppling Atlanta would certainly validate the Vikings. However, the Falcons are a sneaky team. After coming off an historic, offensive onslaught in 2017, the Falcons fell back to earth thanks to an injury to Devonta Freeman. Like Cook, Freeman is back in the saddle.

Where the Falcons have always been weak is on defense, where they again allowed a precipitous amount of yards allowed (385.4 per game – 28th) and points (26.4 per game – 25th). The Vikings will test to see if Atlanta’s shored up their main, overall weakness. Most preseason indications are that they haven’t.

Bet Minnesota vs. Atlanta here. 

---

San Francisco 49ers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This game is a question of quarterback stability. The 49ers paid big money for the services of Jimmy Garoppolo, only to see their $137.5 million man go down in a heap during the third game of the 2018 campaign. Garoppolo is now fully recovered but hasn’t been sharp in the preseason. Without Garoppolo, the Niners were an average offensive team ranking 16th in yards (360.6) and 21st in scoring (21.4 pts per game). Those marks should improve in 2019, and there is plenty of reason for optimism in San Francisco.

That’s not the case in Tampa Bay, where Jameis Winston is on his last legs as a starter in this league. Despite playing in just 11 total games while being routinely benched or injured, Winston was a turnover machine with 14 interceptions (5th) offset by just 19 touchdowns.

Bruce Arians’ arrival, along with the majority of his former staff from Arizona,was supposed to breathe more life in to Winston’s Bucs. Unfortunately, it was more of the same through the preseason. This team continues to be chockfull of talent, but offer little upside after going a dismal 5-11 SU and 8-7-1 ATS through 2018.

While the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have the advantage of playing at home, bettors may be wary of Winston’s long-standing habit of capsizing his team with turnovers. Betting against that trend recurring in 2019 may be a fool’s errand.

Bet San Francisco vs. Tampa Bay here.

---

Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears

Kicking off the season is an old-fashioned NFC North rivalry game between two of the league’s best. The Packers have dominated this matchup in recent history, going 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS against the Chicago Bears.

Chicago really came of age last season while their offense averaged 26.3 points behind the breakout seasons of quarterback Mitch Trubisky and running back Tarik Cohen. Still, if you take away the 48-point and 41-point bombs they dropped on Tampa Bay and Buffalo last year, that average drops to 23.7.

Why bother with this kind of nit-picking? Because Chicago will need all the points they can get. Their defense was the star of the show in 2018, leading the league with just 17.7 points against (1st) and allowing the third fewest yards (299.7 per).

The oddsmakers have already pegged the Chicago Bears as NFC North favorites, and Green Bay can do a lot to unsettle this notion if they come through with a win. This is still a quarterback’s league, and Aaron Rodgers is amongst the very best. However, the offensive focus when talking about Green Bay distracts from their true weakness – a Swiss cheese defense. The Packers routinely give up too many yards (354.4 per game – 18th) and points (25.0 per game – 22nd).

This is why the Bears are favored in this game. Either you believe that Chicago is ready to seize the division, or that it’s still Green Bay’s to lose.

Bet Green Bay vs. Chicago here.

---

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots

There’s no better way to end a busy day of Sunday action than with a Steelers-Patriots showdown in Foxboro. New England enters this game having gone 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS over their last 10 encounters with the Steelers, but will have to retool the offense after losing Rob Gronkowski. The Hall of Fame tight end retired this summer after a brilliant career, which has to be a sigh of relief for a Pittsburgh franchise he routinely stomped into the mud.

Pittsburgh faces a slightly new era themselves, having parted ways with embittered superstars Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell. These new Steelers still have Big Ben Roethlisberger, but they’re facing a team that held the UNDER in 11-of-16 games last season. Points and yards may be hard to come by.

This spread is curiously large given that both teams lost significant superstars on both sides of the ball. That’s why the total, which has been as high as 51.0 points, may be the best line to target. No matter which side you end up choosing, this game is a clear can’t-miss from an entertainment standpoint.

Bet Pittsburgh vs. New England here.

---

Houston Texans vs. New Orleans Saints

The Texans were very busy over the weekend, acquiring OT Laremy Tunsil and WR Kenny Stills from Miami in exchange for a huge trade package that included 2 first round picks and a second round pick. The addition of Tunsil has to be a huge relief for an offensive line that desperately needed a left-tackle, while adding Stills to an already explosive offensive receiving corps is icing on the cake.

In the same span, Houston parted ways with Jadeveon Clowney, sending him to Seattle while agreeing to pay $7 million of his $15 million salary. In return the Texans received a third round pick, OLB Jacob Martin and the well-traveled Barkevious Mingo, who now joins his fifth team since being selected sixth overall in the 2013 NFL Draft. All, in all, the Texans upgraded their offense in important ways, but took a significant step back defensively.

That’s a recipe that the New Orleans Saints are all-too familiar with, and it doesn’t always work out. Remember when the Saints were the 31st ranked defense in 2015, while Drew Brees powered them to second in offense? New Orleans finished 7-9 SU and 8-7-1 ATS. The Saints have achieved a strong balance on both sides of the ball, which is why they’re favored in this game.

But superstition and potential can play tricks on the mind. The Saints are one of the league’s best teams, but have opened the season at 0-5 ATS when playing in Week 1. Bettors won’t soon forget that the Texans opened last season at a woeful 1-5 ATS clip over their first 6 matchups.

We’ll see first-hand whether or not the acquisition of Tunsil (and Stills to a lesser degree) were worth the price Houston had to pay. It’s also a chance for Drew Brees to silence the doubters that this is the season he falls off a cliff in terms of production. The oddsmakers have favored the Saints moderately, but also given this game the highest TOTAL in Week 1 for a reason.

Bet Houston vs. New Orleans here. 

---

Denver Broncos vs. Oakland Raiders

Closing out Week 1 will be a solid AFC West rivalry game between the Broncos and Raiders that’s been a tough game for the oddsmakers to decide on. The game opened in slight favor of the home team but has drifted to a pick’em. There are many concerns about Oakland’s abilities this season, even with Antonio Brown, but there are even more question marks surrounding the sudden and unexpected arrival of Joe Flacco in Denver. The Broncos were a harrowing disappointment at 6-10 SU and 6-9-1 ATS last season, but were the best UNDERS team in the league with a record of 3-12-1 O/U. The Raiders, who were offensively inept last season for a variety of reasons, were just 6-9-1 O/U as well.

Bet Denver vs. Oakland here. 

---

NFL Betting Trends

Looking to get the season started on the right foot? These were the safest NFL bets in 2018.

• The Bears (12-5-0), Seahawks (10-5-2) and Patriots (12-7-0) were the top three teams ATS
• The Bears and Patriots were 7-2 ATS at home
• The Giants were 7-1 ATS on the road
• The Steelers were a perfect 5-0-0 ATS as underdogs
• The Chiefs (11-6-1) hit the OVER 64% of the time
• The Broncos (3-12-1) hit the UNDER 80% of the time

NFL Week 1 Schedule

Cancel all your plans this Sunday. Seriously, you won't be going anywhere.

Get to Know Kyler Murray

Few players generated more excitement during the preseason than Kyler Murray, whose rare blend of speed and precision made him the first overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. Here are three things you may not know about the Arizona Cardinals' new QB.

• Murray comes by his athleticism honestly. His father, Kevin, was also a two-sport star who played quarterback at Texas A&M and was drafted by the Milwaukee Brewers in the 11th round of the 1982 MLB Amateur Draft. The elder Murray played one summer of minor league ball with the Pikeville Brewers before embarking on a pair of short stints in the NFL and CFL.
• Murray may have made his mark at Oklahoma, but he grew up bleeding blue and orange as a diehard fan of the Florida Gators. The Bedford, Texas native never missed a UF game as a kid and idolized quarterback Tim Tebow and fleet-footed wide receiver Percy Harvin.
• Murray was the shortest quarterback measured at the NFL Combine since 2003, but it’s not as though he’s a total pipsqueak. At 5’10” he’s just a hair under Russell Wilson and less than two inches shorter than Drew Brees, two similarly diminutive quarterbacks who have managed to have a little success in the league despite their short stature.

NFL Audibles

Thank you, @CutonDime25. ✊ pic.twitter.com/Wnct3H8fC7

— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) August 31, 2019

The LeSean McCoy era has officially come to an end in Buffalo following the Bills' decision to release the veteran RB over the weekend. A six-time Pro Bowler, McCoy rushed for 514 yards and three touchdowns last season. He'll begin this season in Kansas City, where he'll be reunited with head coach Andy Reid.

Me: So you telling me you’re not chasing me anymore? @ClowneJD : “Nah bro...all other QBs”

Me: okay we’re cool we’re cool.. ?

Welcome to the squad bro! ??? pic.twitter.com/jiU5lXt2Dw

— Russell Wilson (@DangeRussWilson) August 31, 2019

Russell Wilson won't have to worry about having Jadeveon Clowney drill him into the turf anymore. The Seattle Seahawks acquired the Houston Texans outside linebacker on Saturday in exchange for linebacker Jacob Martin, Barkevious Mingo and a third round pick. The Texans agreed to pay the 26-year-old Clowney a hefty $7 million signing bonus, with Seattle paying his $8 million salary.

The wait is nearly over for Le'Veon Bell and the Jets, who host the Bills on Sunday at MetLife Stadium.

Three and Out

2019 is shaping up to be a season of major milestones as some of the game's greatest players close in on some significant career achievements. Here are three numbers you need to know:

• 75,000: Drew Brees is already the NFL's all-time regular season passing leader, but the New Orleans Saints QB is now just 563 yards away from reaching the 75,000 mark. Expect him to eclipse the milestone by Week 2 against the Los Angeles Rams.
• 15,000: Frank Gore is just 252 yards away from becoming the third player in NFL history to rush for 15,000 yards. He ran for 722 yards with Miami last season and is still defying Father Time at age 36.
• 100: Von Miller is two sacks away from reaching an even 100. The Broncos star had 14.5 sacks last season, his second highest total since 2012.

---

The NFL is back and so are BetAmerica's National Football League odds, props and futures!