Packers vs Chiefs: NFL Week 9 betting odds, preview, and pick

The Kansas City Chiefs take on the Green Bay Packers in an intriguing game at Arrowhead Stadium this Sunday. The 4-4 Chiefs are having a bit of an identity crisis and barely escaped MNF with a win over the Giants, while Green Bay is seemingly unstoppable after beating the Arizona Cardinals despite playing without Devante Adams.

Despite the differing form, the odds currently suggest that the Chiefs have the edge.

The Rodgers and Adams Bromance is back

The Packers are one of the most dominant teams in the league at 7-1, and haven’t tasted defeat since that bizarre 38-3 loss to the New Orleans Saints in Week 1. But despite winning seven games in a row, the Packers rank 16th in the league for total points scored and 22nd for total offensive yards. They just know how to get the job done.

A large part of that is Aaron Rodgers, of course, who comes into the game having thrown 17 touchdowns to just three interceptions. A-Rod’s average yards per game this season (236.8) is the lowest of his career, but his completion rate of 67.1% is one of the highest.

On Sunday he should be able to welcome back Davante Adams off the COVID-19 list, with the Green Bay star commanding a 29% target share this year and averaging more than 100 yards per game. The Chiefs have given up an average of 277 passing yards per game to the opposition this year, so expect Adams and Rodgers to feast on Sunday.

In Rodgers’ last two games against the Chiefs, he threw for a total of 638 yards and eight touchdowns – a huge concern for a Chiefs defense that ranks 25th in points allowed per game.

Chiefs in crisis

The Chiefs' offense has turned the ball over 19 times in the last seven games. It’s far from the season many were expecting from a team led by Andy Reid and MVP Patrick Mahomes.

The Chiefs have failed to score more than 20 points in three of their last four games, but this is an offense that contains Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, so you can never completely write them off. Both men are averaging at least 70 yards a game this season, but now face a Packers defense which is ranked sixth in the league against the pass.

Packers vs. Chiefs Injury Report

Packers and Chiefs Betting Trends

• The Packers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games
• The Chiefs are 3-15-1 ATS in their last 19 games
• The Under is 5-0 in the Packers’ last five games
• The Chiefs are 6-3 against the spread in their last nine games against the Packers
• The Under is 4-2 in the Chiefs’ last six games
• The Chiefs are 10-1 straight-up in their last 11 games against NFC opponents

Packers will keep rolling

Green Bay is rolling, and even in a hostile atmosphere, it’s hard to see anyone stopping the Packers. Many presumed MNF would be a bounce back game for the Chiefs after the 27-3 beating from the Titans in Week 7, but they continued to struggle against a Giants team that was struggling with injuries. A showdown with the in-form Packers is a different story.

Rodgers should be able to pick apart this Chiefs defense with ease, and while Mahomes has all the skills to try to keep up, the Chiefs’ turnovers will ultimately swing the game for Green Bay.

Score prediction: Packers 34, Chiefs 27

NFL Week 9 Picks: PACKERS +0.5, OVER 54

Packers vs Chiefs Powered by The Quant Edge

Our predictive engine is calling for the Chiefs to come out on top.